QB · PIT
Aaron Rodgers
Next: Week 10, PIT at CIN, .
Passing yards
Consistent vs 42 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 215.6 |
| Matchup | +7.9 |
| Weather | +10.0 |
| Coach / team | +6.1 |
| Rest / bye | −4.9 |
| Game time | +5.3 |
| Injuries / lineup | +11.8 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 251.9 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 217.9 counts as 215.6. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: CIN allows 4% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −39% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +4%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: +3% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McCarthy's offense vs Golden's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 17% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 71 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 3% below their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). No bye history for McCarthy. This player: 4% above his average in 2 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 8 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 5% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −5% in 1164 games; his own games: −9% in 27 without vs 7 with). Effect +4%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. CIN secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Passing touchdowns
Boom or bust vs 40 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
At least one: 76%, fair odds -311 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 1.37 |
| Matchup | −0.20 |
| Weather | +0.13 |
| Coach / team | +0.10 |
| Rest / bye | +0.04 |
| Game time | +0.15 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.11 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 1.69 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% less than average, so his raw 1.34 counts as 1.37. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: CIN allows 15% less to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −13% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +7%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −41% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +3%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McCarthy's offense vs Golden's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 105% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 71 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 3% below their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). No bye history for McCarthy. This player: 30% above his average in 2 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 8 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 25% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 1164 games; his own games: −18% in 27 without vs 7 with). Effect +8%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide +1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. CIN secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −2% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 25 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 3.9 |
| Matchup | +2.1 |
| Weather | −0.2 |
| Coach / team | +0.3 |
| Rest / bye | +0.5 |
| Game time | −0.8 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.1 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 5.9 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 5% more than average, so his raw 4.1 counts as 3.9. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: CIN allows 55% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −3% in 480 games; his own games: −7% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +0% in 144 games; his own games: +67% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect −5%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McCarthy's offense vs Golden's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 4% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 71 games since 2018, 8% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 7% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). No bye history for McCarthy. This player: 7% above his average in 2 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 8 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 26% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. CIN defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 26 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 8%, fair odds +1078 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.05 |
| Matchup | +0.01 |
| Weather | +0.01 |
| Coach / team | +0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.06 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 35% more than average, so his raw 0.06 counts as 0.05. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: CIN allows 24% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +7%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +6%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McCarthy's offense vs Golden's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 50% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 71 games since 2018, 5% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 1% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). No bye history for McCarthy. This player: 100% below his average in 2 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 8 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 100% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. CIN defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 8 | CLE | 172 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | NO | 212 | 6 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 6 | TB | 253 | -1 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 5 | IND | 235 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 4 | CLE | 299 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 3 | CIN | 292 | 10 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 2 | NE | 187 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | ATL | 221 | -3 | 0 | 1 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.