Model v0.12 · Week 10
Biggest edges this week
Ranked by this week's adjustments: how much the matchup, weather, coaching matchup, bye week, game time, and injuries and lineup together move a player away from his own baseline (his schedule-adjusted recent statistics), measured in units of his usual game-to-game spread. Sportsbook lines are not connected yet, so this is not expected value against a price: compare each projection with the line at your sportsbook.
| # | Player | Bet | Baseline | Matchup | Weather | Coaching | Bye | Game time | Injuries | Total | Projection | Profile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bhayshul Tuten RB JAX vs TEN | Rushing yards | 55.9 | +2.3 | +3.5 | +2.7 | +12.5 | +21.0 | 76.9 | Boom or bust | ||
| 2 | James Cook RB BUF vs NYJ | Rushing yards | 97.2 | +10.8 | +4.7 | +10.8 | −2.9 | +7.5 | +30.9 | 128.2 | Consistent | |
| 3 | David Montgomery RB HOU vs CLE | Rushing yards | 27.6 | +3.9 | −0.8 | −3.0 | −11.6 | −11.5 | 16.1 | Moderate | ||
| 4 | Kenneth Walker III RB KC vs ATL | Rushing yards | 87.3 | +9.0 | −1.2 | +14.5 | −6.2 | +5.4 | +21.4 | 108.7 | Consistent | |
| 5 | Bijan Robinson RB ATL vs KC | Rushing yards | 101.2 | −12.3 | +0.7 | −8.7 | −4.2 | −24.6 | 76.6 | Consistent | ||
| 6 | Jerry Jeudy WR CLE vs HOU | Receiving yards | 26.3 | +3.4 | +1.4 | −3.6 | −3.5 | −8.1 | −10.2 | 16.1 | Moderate | |
| 7 | DeMario Douglas WR NE vs DET | Receiving yards | 68.6 | +4.9 | +0.1 | −21.1 | −16.0 | 52.5 | Boom or bust | |||
| 8 | Brian Robinson RB ATL vs KC | Rushing yards | 25.7 | −3.1 | −0.3 | +0.2 | +0.5 | −5.2 | −7.9 | 17.8 | Boom or bust | |
| 9 | Alvin Kamara RB NO vs CAR | Rushing yards | 21.9 | +2.4 | +0.9 | +2.6 | −11.7 | −5.8 | 16.1 | Boom or bust | ||
| 10 | Rhamondre Stevenson RB NE vs DET | Rushing yards | 48.0 | −6.1 | +0.7 | −4.5 | −9.9 | 38.1 | Consistent | |||
| 11 | Josh Allen QB BUF vs NYJ | Anytime touchdown | 0.73 | +0.11 | +0.05 | +0.08 | +0.04 | +0.28 | 1.00 | Consistent | ||
| 12 | Garrett Wilson WR NYJ vs BUF | Receiving yards | 58.6 | −0.1 | −0.4 | +0.6 | −0.5 | −12.3 | −12.6 | 46.0 | Consistent | |
| 13 | Cam Ward QB TEN vs JAX | Passing yards | 185.6 | +2.1 | −0.9 | +1.4 | −12.6 | −1.7 | −15.7 | −27.4 | 158.2 | Moderate |
| 14 | Kenneth Walker III RB KC vs ATL | Receiving yards | 22.9 | +0.2 | −0.6 | −1.2 | −3.5 | −1.7 | −6.8 | 16.1 | Consistent | |
| 15 | Gunnar Helm TE TEN vs JAX | Receiving yards | 21.6 | −5.3 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.8 | −0.6 | +0.2 | −6.3 | 15.3 | Boom or bust |
| 16 | Mack Hollins WR NE vs DET | Receiving yards | 52.9 | +3.8 | +0.1 | −12.6 | −8.7 | 44.2 | Consistent | |||
| 17 | Josh Allen QB BUF vs NYJ | Passing touchdowns | 1.43 | +0.15 | +0.03 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.13 | +0.41 | 1.85 | Moderate | |
| 18 | Dalton Kincaid TE BUF vs NYJ | Receiving yards | 48.5 | +4.4 | +6.0 | +4.8 | −3.5 | +2.6 | +14.3 | 62.7 | Moderate | |
| 19 | Braelon Allen RB NYJ vs BUF | Rushing yards | 71.9 | −6.8 | +1.7 | +0.5 | +9.3 | −18.0 | −13.3 | 58.6 | Boom or bust | |
| 20 | Deshaun Watson QB CLE vs HOU | Rushing yards | 23.9 | −7.3 | +0.9 | −0.6 | +2.3 | −4.6 | 19.3 | Consistent | ||
| 21 | Harold Fannin Jr. TE CLE vs HOU | Anytime touchdown | 0.48 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.24 | 0.22 | Consistent | |||
| 22 | Brenton Strange TE JAX vs TEN | Receiving yards | 41.5 | −5.1 | −2.4 | +0.3 | +0.2 | −6.9 | 34.6 | Consistent | ||
| 23 | Rashee Rice WR KC vs ATL | Anytime touchdown | 0.60 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.21 | 0.40 | Consistent | ||
| 24 | James Cook RB BUF vs NYJ | Anytime touchdown | 0.96 | +0.21 | −0.08 | +0.11 | +0.08 | +0.03 | +0.35 | 1.31 | Consistent | |
| 25 | Trevor Lawrence QB JAX vs TEN | Rushing yards | 13.8 | +0.7 | +0.9 | −0.9 | +3.1 | +3.8 | 17.6 | Moderate |