WR · NE
Mack Hollins
Next: Week 12, NE at LAC, .
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 52.9 |
| Matchup | +2.3 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.4 |
| Rest / bye | +1.1 |
| Game time | +1.8 |
| Injuries / lineup | −2.8 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 55.7 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% less than average, so his raw 51.9 counts as 52.9. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: LAC allows 4% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: McDaniels's offense vs O'Leary's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 55 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 3% below their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). McDaniels's offenses: 5% below in 5 games. This player: 22% above his average in 3 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 5 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 8% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 15 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −38% in 33 without vs 1 with). Effect −8%. Offensive line: Alijah Vera-Tucker (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Alijah Vera-Tucker: his team +11% in 3 games without him vs 6 with); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect +3%. LAC secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 19%, fair odds +422 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.13 |
| Matchup | +0.05 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.17 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% less than average, so his raw 0.13 counts as 0.13. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: LAC allows 39% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: McDaniels's offense vs O'Leary's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 55 games since 2018, 5% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 1% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). McDaniels's offenses: 18% below in 5 games. This player: 187% above his average in 3 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 5 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 22% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 15 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games). Effect −9%. Offensive line: Alijah Vera-Tucker (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Alijah Vera-Tucker: his team +33% in 3 games without him vs 6 with); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect +8%. LAC secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −1%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | GB | 0 | 0 | 36 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 4 | BUF | 0 | 0 | 53 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | JAX | 0 | 0 | 87 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | PIT | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | SEA | 0 | 0 | 51 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 22 (playoffs) | SEA | 0 | 0 | 78 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 21 (playoffs) | DEN | 0 | 0 | 51 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 | BAL | 0 | 0 | 69 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.