WR · CLE
Jerry Jeudy
Next: Week 10, HOU at CLE, .
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 26.3 |
| Matchup | +3.4 |
| Weather | +1.4 |
| Coach / team | −3.6 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −3.5 |
| Injuries / lineup | −8.0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 16.1 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 6% more than average, so his raw 27.8 counts as 26.3. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: HOU allows 13% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: +3% in 10 without vs 24 with). Effect +2%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −39% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect +2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Monken's offense vs Ryans's defense: 4 meetings since 2018, 22% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: Air Raid / spread offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 70 games since 2018, 3% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 26 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 15% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Deshaun Watson 6.6 yards per attempt vs Shedeur Sanders 6.7, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −20% in 13 without vs 21 with). Effect +1%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +126% in 26 without vs 8 with). Effect −28%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. HOU secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: Denzel Boston is listed Questionable, toe.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 9%, fair odds +1073 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.05 |
| Matchup | 0 |
| Weather | +0.01 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | 0 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.06 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 19% more than average, so his raw 0.06 counts as 0.05. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: HOU allows 7% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 10 without vs 24 with). Effect +8%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect +3%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Monken's offense vs Ryans's defense: 4 meetings since 2018, 1% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: Air Raid / spread offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 70 games since 2018, 3% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 26 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 3% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Deshaun Watson 3.1 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs Shedeur Sanders 3.5, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −64% in 13 without vs 21 with). Effect +3%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games). Effect −5%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +3%. HOU secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −1%. Watch: Denzel Boston is listed Questionable, toe.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | NO | 0 | 0 | 37 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | TEN | 0 | 0 | 21 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | BAL | 0 | 0 | 69 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | NYJ | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | PIT | 0 | 0 | 36 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | JAX | 0 | 0 | 26 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.