TE · CLE
Harold Fannin Jr.
Next: Week 10, HOU at CLE, .
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 50 tight ends · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 51.4 |
| Matchup | −4.5 |
| Weather | +2.8 |
| Coach / team | −5.6 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +2.4 |
| Injuries / lineup | +1.0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 47.4 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4% less than average, so his raw 49.3 counts as 51.4. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: HOU allows 9% less to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −39% in 6 without vs 19 with). Effect +5%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: +6% in 2 without vs 23 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Monken's offense vs Ryans's defense: 4 meetings since 2018, 22% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: Air Raid / spread offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 70 games since 2018, 3% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 21 games in that window (of his last 25), he was 7% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Deshaun Watson 6.6 yards per attempt vs Shedeur Sanders 6.7, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −23% in 10 without vs 15 with). Effect +1%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −13% in 16 without vs 9 with). Effect +1%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. HOU secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: Denzel Boston is listed Questionable, toe.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 45 tight ends · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 21%, fair odds +371 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.48 |
| Matchup | −0.20 |
| Weather | −0.03 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.22 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 5% more than average, so his raw 0.50 counts as 0.48. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: HOU allows 43% less to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: +150% in 6 without vs 19 with). Effect −7%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: +150% in 2 without vs 23 with). Effect −4%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Monken's offense vs Ryans's defense: 4 meetings since 2018, 1% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: Air Raid / spread offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 70 games since 2018, 3% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 21 games in that window (of his last 25), he was 6% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Deshaun Watson 3.1 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs Shedeur Sanders 3.5, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −42% in 10 without vs 15 with). Effect +1%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: +8% in 16 without vs 9 with). Effect −4%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. HOU secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −1%. Watch: Denzel Boston is listed Questionable, toe.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | NO | 0 | 0 | 42 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 8 | PIT | 0 | 0 | 154 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | TEN | 0 | 0 | 91 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | BAL | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | NYJ | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | PIT | 0 | 0 | 27 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | CAR | 0 | 0 | 51 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 2 | TB | 0 | 0 | 54 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.