RB · HOU
David Montgomery
Injury report: Questionable, groin
Next: Week 10, HOU at CLE, .
Rushing yards
Moderate vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 27.6 |
| Matchup | +3.9 |
| Weather | −0.0 |
| Coach / team | −0.8 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −3.0 |
| Injuries / lineup | −11.6 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 16.1 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% more than average, so his raw 28.4 counts as 27.6. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: CLE allows 14% more to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −3% in 480 games; his own games: +9% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect −0%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Caley's offense vs Rutenberg's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Zone 4-3 (Tampa 2 tree) defenses, 67 games since 2018, 4% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 15 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 14% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Lead running back: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide +101% in 1074 games; his own games: +58% in 29 without vs 5 with). Effect −36%. Offensive line: Keylan Rutledge (Out, neck) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Keylan Rutledge: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 11 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. CLE defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%. Watch: he himself is listed Questionable, groin; offensive line: Trent Brown (Questionable, wrist).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 11.4 |
| Matchup | −3.0 |
| Weather | −0.1 |
| Coach / team | +0.1 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.5 |
| Injuries / lineup | −1.3 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 7.7 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% less than average, so his raw 11.3 counts as 11.4. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: CLE allows 26% less to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: +51% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect −1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Caley's offense vs Rutenberg's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Zone 4-3 (Tampa 2 tree) defenses, 67 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 15 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 9% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 13 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +31% in 31 without vs 3 with). Effect −15%. Offensive line: Keylan Rutledge (Out, neck) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Keylan Rutledge: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 11 of his last 16 games). Effect +0%. CLE secondary: Ronnie Hickman (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Ronnie Hickman: no games without him to compare, league number used, allows 8.6 yards per target (unit starters: 7.3)); already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. Watch: he himself is listed Questionable, groin; offensive line: Trent Brown (Questionable, wrist).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 22%, fair odds +345 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.44 |
| Matchup | −0.03 |
| Weather | +0.01 |
| Coach / team | −0.02 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.02 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.13 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.28 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. His schedule was about average. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: CLE allows 8% less to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect +2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Caley's offense vs Rutenberg's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Zone 4-3 (Tampa 2 tree) defenses, 67 games since 2018, 6% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 15 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 7% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Lead running back: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide +108% in 1074 games; his own games: +19% in 29 without vs 5 with). Effect −32%. Offensive line: Keylan Rutledge (Out, neck) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Keylan Rutledge: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 11 of his last 16 games). Effect +1%. CLE defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%. Watch: he himself is listed Questionable, groin; offensive line: Trent Brown (Questionable, wrist).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 5 | TEN | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | DAL | 0 | 24 | 19 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | IND | 0 | 33 | 15 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | CIN | 0 | 10 | 14 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | BUF | 0 | 60 | 19 | 3 |
| 2025 wk 18 | CHI | 0 | 42 | 13 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 | MIN | 0 | 25 | 15 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 | PIT | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.