RB · ATL
Brian Robinson
Not expected to play: on injured reserve
Next: Week 10, KC at ATL, .
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 25.7 |
| Matchup | −3.1 |
| Weather | −0.3 |
| Coach / team | +0.2 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.5 |
| Injuries / lineup | −5.2 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 17.8 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% more than average, so his raw 26.1 counts as 25.7. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: KC allows 12% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −3% in 480 games; his own games: −60% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect −1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Rees's offense vs Spagnuolo's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 12 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 3% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: −28% in 11 without vs 23 with). Effect +3%. Lead running back: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide +101% in 1074 games; his own games: −14% in 28 without vs 6 with). Effect −21%. Offensive line: Ryan Neuzil (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Ryan Neuzil: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 1 of his last 16 games). Effect −4%. KC defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 3.8 |
| Matchup | +0.7 |
| Weather | +0.1 |
| Coach / team | −0.1 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.8 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.3 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 5.7 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4% more than average, so his raw 3.9 counts as 3.8. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: KC allows 19% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Rees's offense vs Spagnuolo's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 2% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 12 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 71% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Michael Penix Jr. 7.2 yards per attempt vs Cooper Rush 6.1, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −47% in 11 without vs 23 with). Effect +7%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −14% in 28 without vs 6 with). Effect −1%. Offensive line: Ryan Neuzil (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Ryan Neuzil: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 1 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. KC secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does); KC secondary: Mansoor Delane (Questionable, shoulder).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 11%, fair odds +836 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.27 |
| Matchup | −0.05 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.04 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.03 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.15 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 16% more than average, so his raw 0.31 counts as 0.27. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: KC allows 17% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Rees's offense vs Spagnuolo's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 2% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 12 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 44% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: −16% in 11 without vs 23 with). Effect +3%. Lead running back: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide +108% in 1074 games; his own games: −62% in 28 without vs 6 with). Effect −12%. Offensive line: Ryan Neuzil (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Ryan Neuzil: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 1 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. KC defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −3%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 6 | CHI | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | BAL | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | NO | 0 | 62 | 5 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 3 | GB | 0 | 50 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 | CAR | 0 | 51 | 16 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | PIT | 0 | 31 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 20 (playoffs) | SEA | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 19 (playoffs) | PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.