TE · BUF

Dalton Kincaid

Next: Week 10, BUF at NYJ, Today, 1pm ET.

Receiving yards

Moderate vs 50 tight ends · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games

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Factor	yds
Statistics	48.5
Matchup	+4.4
Weather	+6.0
Coach / team	+4.8
Rest / bye	0
Game time	−3.5
Injuries / lineup	+2.6
News	0
Projection	62.7

Why these numbers

Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% more than average, so his raw 50.1 counts as 48.5. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
Matchup: NYJ allows 9% more to tight ends than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 12 mph, 1% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −30% in 5 without vs 29 with). Effect +2%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −52% in 8 without vs 26 with). Effect +9%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
Coach / team: Brady's offense vs Glenn's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 41% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: Air Raid / spread offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 47 games since 2018, 2% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 18 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 10% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Josh Allen 7.9 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +6% in 1 without vs 33 with). Effect +1%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −37% in 28 without vs 6 with). Effect +7%. Offensive line: Spencer Brown (Doubtful, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Spencer Brown: his team −12% in 4 games without him vs 23 with); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect −3%. NYJ secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: NYJ secondary: Jarvis Brownlee (Questionable, illness).
News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.

Anytime touchdown

Consistent vs 45 tight ends · last 16 games · number on each bar = games

Anytime touchdown: 26%, fair odds +289 (adjusted for this week)

Factor	TD
Statistics	0.27
Matchup	−0.02
Weather	+0.03
Coach / team	+0.02
Rest / bye	0
Game time	−0.05
Injuries / lineup	−0.02
News	0
Projection	0.24

Why these numbers

Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 16% more than average, so his raw 0.31 counts as 0.27. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
Matchup: NYJ allows 6% less to tight ends than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 12 mph, 1% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −19% in 5 without vs 29 with). Effect +2%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 8 without vs 26 with). Effect +11%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
Coach / team: Brady's offense vs Glenn's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 76% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: Air Raid / spread offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 47 games since 2018, 2% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 18 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 36% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Josh Allen 5.4 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs a typical backup 3.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −70% in 1 without vs 33 with). Effect +3%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: +34% in 28 without vs 6 with). Effect −12%. Offensive line: Spencer Brown (Doubtful, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Spencer Brown: his team +1% in 4 games without him vs 23 with); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect +1%. NYJ secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −0%. Watch: NYJ secondary: Jarvis Brownlee (Questionable, illness).
News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.

Recent games

Game	Opp	Rec	TD
2026 wk 9	MIN	28	0
2026 wk 8	BAL	86	1
2026 wk 6	LV	38	0
2026 wk 5	LA	7	0
2026 wk 4	NE	7	0
2026 wk 3	LAC	38	0
2026 wk 2	DET	95	1
2026 wk 1	HOU	130	0

Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.