RB · ATL
Bijan Robinson
Next: Week 10, KC at ATL, .
Rushing yards
Consistent vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 101.2 |
| Matchup | −12.3 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.7 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −8.7 |
| Injuries / lineup | −4.2 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 76.6 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% less than average, so his raw 98.4 counts as 101.2. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: KC allows 12% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Rees's offense vs Spagnuolo's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 19 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 14% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: −3% in 13 without vs 21 with). Effect +1%. Offensive line: Ryan Neuzil (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Ryan Neuzil: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 0 of his last 16 games). Effect −4%. KC defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −2%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 27.7 |
| Matchup | +5.3 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.5 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −1.3 |
| Injuries / lineup | +1.5 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 32.8 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 7% more than average, so his raw 29.6 counts as 27.7. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: KC allows 19% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Rees's offense vs Spagnuolo's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 2% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 19 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 6% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Michael Penix Jr. 7.2 yards per attempt vs Cooper Rush 6.1, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −12% in 13 without vs 21 with). Effect +8%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +7% in 5 without vs 29 with). Effect −3%. Offensive line: Ryan Neuzil (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Ryan Neuzil: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 0 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. KC secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: KC secondary: Mansoor Delane (Questionable, shoulder).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 36%, fair odds +181 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.67 |
| Matchup | −0.11 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.03 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.08 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.44 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% more than average, so his raw 0.69 counts as 0.67. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: KC allows 17% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Rees's offense vs Spagnuolo's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 2% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 19 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 7% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: +39% in 13 without vs 21 with). Effect −11%. Offensive line: Ryan Neuzil (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Ryan Neuzil: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 0 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. KC defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −3%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | CIN | 0 | 100 | 47 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 8 | TB | 0 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | SF | 0 | 63 | 59 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | CHI | 0 | 61 | -8 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | BAL | 0 | 86 | 32 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | NO | 0 | 145 | 2 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 3 | GB | 0 | 194 | 19 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 2 | CAR | 0 | 72 | 9 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.