RB · NO
Alvin Kamara
Next: Week 10, CAR at NO, .
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 21.9 |
| Matchup | +2.4 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.9 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +2.6 |
| Injuries / lineup | −11.4 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 16.4 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 8% more than average, so his raw 23.6 counts as 21.9. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: CAR allows 11% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Moore's offense vs Wash's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Air Coryell offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 77 games since 2018, 5% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 21 games in that window (of his last 32), he was 15% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: −13% in 11 without vs 21 with). Effect +2%. Lead running back: back to full strength, after being short in 14 of his last 16 games (league-wide +101% in 1074 games; his own games: +119% in 30 without vs 2 with). Effect −48%. Offensive line: Taliese Fuaga (Out, knee), Erik McCoy (Out, biceps) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Taliese Fuaga: his team +13% in 4 games without him vs 21 with; Erik McCoy: his team −8% in 10 games without him vs 15 with); already the case in 10 of his last 16 games). Effect −2%. CAR defensive front: Bobby Okereke (Out, foot) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Bobby Okereke: his team −42% in 1 games without him vs 7 with, 7.3 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.7)); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect +2%. Watch: Travis Etienne is listed Questionable, hamstring.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 22.4 |
| Matchup | −1.2 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +1.5 |
| Injuries / lineup | −1.3 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 21.3 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% less than average, so his raw 22.2 counts as 22.4. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: CAR allows 5% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Moore's offense vs Wash's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Air Coryell offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 77 games since 2018, 0% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 21 games in that window (of his last 32), he was 10% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Tyler Shough 7.0 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −8% in 11 without vs 21 with). Effect +3%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +59% in 19 without vs 13 with). Effect −13%. Offensive line: Taliese Fuaga (Out, knee), Erik McCoy (Out, biceps) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Taliese Fuaga: his team −9% in 4 games without him vs 21 with; Erik McCoy: his team +11% in 10 games without him vs 15 with); already the case in 10 of his last 16 games). Effect +3%. CAR secondary: Akayleb Evans (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Akayleb Evans: his team +4% in 15 games without him vs 11 with, allows 8.8 yards per target (unit starters: 8.5)); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect +2%. Watch: CAR secondary: Will Lee (Questionable, hamstring).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 13%, fair odds +667 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.17 |
| Matchup | +0.06 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.05 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.12 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.16 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 13% more than average, so his raw 0.19 counts as 0.17. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: CAR allows 39% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Moore's offense vs Wash's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Air Coryell offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 77 games since 2018, 2% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 21 games in that window (of his last 32), he was 29% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: −31% in 11 without vs 21 with). Effect +9%. Lead running back: back to full strength, after being short in 14 of his last 16 games (league-wide +108% in 1074 games). Effect −49%. Offensive line: Taliese Fuaga (Out, knee), Erik McCoy (Out, biceps) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Taliese Fuaga: his team −27% in 4 games without him vs 21 with; Erik McCoy: his team −20% in 10 games without him vs 15 with); already the case in 10 of his last 16 games). Effect −17%. CAR defensive front: Bobby Okereke (Out, foot) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Bobby Okereke: his team −5% in 1 games without him vs 7 with, 7.3 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.7)); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect +5%. Watch: Travis Etienne is listed Questionable, hamstring.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | CLE | 0 | 32 | 17 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | PIT | 0 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | NYG | 0 | 34 | 35 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 5 | MIN | 0 | 12 | -6 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | ATL | 0 | 23 | 35 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 3 | LV | 0 | 36 | 5 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | BAL | 0 | 15 | 7 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 | ATL | 0 | 11 | 4 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.