QB · CLE
Deshaun Watson
Next: Week 10, HOU at CLE, .
Passing yards
Moderate vs 42 quarterbacks · last 15 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 219.2 |
| Matchup | +12.5 |
| Weather | +1.2 |
| Coach / team | −27.8 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.9 |
| Injuries / lineup | +22.6 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 226.8 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 15 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% more than average, so his raw 222.6 counts as 219.2. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: HOU allows 6% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 15 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −16% in 1 without vs 14 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Monken's offense vs Ryans's defense: 4 meetings since 2018, 22% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: Air Raid / spread offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 70 games since 2018, 3% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 12 games in that window (of his last 15), he was 1% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 15 games (league-wide −5% in 1164 games; his own games: −25% in 7 without vs 8 with). Effect +8%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 15 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. HOU secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 15 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: Denzel Boston is listed Questionable, toe.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Passing touchdowns
Boom or bust vs 40 quarterbacks · last 15 games · number on each bar = games
At least one: 32%, fair odds +216 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.42 |
| Matchup | 0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.06 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.02 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.05 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.39 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 15 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 6% less than average, so his raw 0.40 counts as 0.42. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: HOU allows 0% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 15 games (league-wide −13% in 480 games; his own games: +11% in 1 without vs 14 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Monken's offense vs Ryans's defense: 4 meetings since 2018, 28% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: Air Raid / spread offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 70 games since 2018, 1% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 12 games in that window (of his last 15), he was 6% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 15 games (league-wide −8% in 1164 games; his own games: −25% in 7 without vs 8 with). Effect +9%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 15 games (league-wide +1% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. HOU secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 15 games (league-wide −2% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: Denzel Boston is listed Questionable, toe.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Rushing yards
Consistent vs 25 quarterbacks · last 15 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 23.9 |
| Matchup | −7.3 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.9 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.6 |
| Injuries / lineup | +2.5 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 19.5 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 15 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% more than average, so his raw 24.3 counts as 23.9. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: HOU allows 30% less to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 15 games (league-wide −3% in 480 games; his own games: +14% in 1 without vs 14 with). Effect +0%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Monken's offense vs Ryans's defense: 4 meetings since 2018, 7% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: Air Raid / spread offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 70 games since 2018, 6% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 12 games in that window (of his last 15), he was 6% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 15 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +4%. HOU defensive front: Azeez Al-Shaair (Out, groin), Danielle Hunter (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Azeez Al-Shaair: his team +16% in 2 games without him vs 25 with, 6.8 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.8); Danielle Hunter: no games without him to compare, league number used, 2.7 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.8)); already the case in 2 of his last 15 games). Effect +11%. Watch: HOU defensive front: Will Anderson (Questionable, ankle).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Moderate vs 26 quarterbacks · last 15 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 28%, fair odds +256 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.12 |
| Matchup | +0.07 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.03 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.04 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.26 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 15 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 37% more than average, so his raw 0.16 counts as 0.12. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: HOU allows 64% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 15 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 1 without vs 14 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Monken's offense vs Ryans's defense: 4 meetings since 2018, 1% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: Air Raid / spread offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 70 games since 2018, 3% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 12 games in that window (of his last 15), he was 25% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 15 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +5%. HOU defensive front: Azeez Al-Shaair (Out, groin), Danielle Hunter (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Azeez Al-Shaair: his team +75% in 2 games without him vs 25 with, 6.8 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.8); Danielle Hunter: no games without him to compare, league number used, 2.7 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.8)); already the case in 2 of his last 15 games). Effect +17%. Watch: HOU defensive front: Will Anderson (Questionable, ankle).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 8 | PIT | 324 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | TEN | 308 | 19 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 6 | BAL | 164 | 29 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | NYJ | 155 | 40 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 4 | PIT | 268 | 22 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | CAR | 144 | 45 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 2 | TB | 238 | 22 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 1 | JAX | 205 | 38 | 0 | 1 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.