QB · JAX
Trevor Lawrence
Next: Week 10, JAX at TEN, .
Passing yards
Consistent vs 42 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 242.9 |
| Matchup | +23.2 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −17.4 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −3.3 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.4 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 245.8 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% more than average, so his raw 247.9 counts as 242.9. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: TEN allows 10% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 52°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Coen's offense vs Saleh's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 32% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 298 games since 2018, 0% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 20 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 2% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −5% in 1164 games; his own games: −6% in 17 without vs 17 with). Effect +0%. Offensive line: Anton Harrison (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Anton Harrison: his team −1% in 5 games without him vs 21 with); already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect −0%. TEN secondary: Amani Hooker (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Amani Hooker: his team +4% in 2 games without him vs 23 with, allows 9.9 yards per target (unit starters: 8.6)); already the case in 12 of his last 16 games). Effect +0%. Watch: offensive line: Robert Hainsey (Questionable, concussion).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Passing touchdowns
Consistent vs 40 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
At least one: 91%, fair odds -984 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 2.32 |
| Matchup | −0.12 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.15 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.17 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.35 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 2.56 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. His schedule was about average. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: TEN allows 5% less to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 52°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Coen's offense vs Saleh's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 39% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 298 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 20 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 11% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 1164 games; his own games: −45% in 17 without vs 17 with). Effect +2%. Offensive line: Anton Harrison (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Anton Harrison: his team +33% in 5 games without him vs 21 with); already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect +11%. TEN secondary: Amani Hooker (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Amani Hooker: his team +24% in 2 games without him vs 23 with, allows 9.9 yards per target (unit starters: 8.6)); already the case in 12 of his last 16 games). Effect +2%. Watch: offensive line: Robert Hainsey (Questionable, concussion).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Rushing yards
Moderate vs 25 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 13.8 |
| Matchup | +0.7 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.9 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.9 |
| Injuries / lineup | +3.5 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 18.1 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 8% less than average, so his raw 12.8 counts as 13.8. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: TEN allows 5% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 52°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Coen's offense vs Saleh's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 42% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 298 games since 2018, 3% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 20 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 8% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Anton Harrison (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Anton Harrison: his team +23% in 5 games without him vs 21 with); already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect +8%. TEN defensive front: Anthony Hill (Out, neck), Jeffery Simmons (no longer on the roster), Cody Barton (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Anthony Hill: no games without him to compare, league number used, 10.0 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.1); Jeffery Simmons: his team +6% in 3 games without him vs 22 with, 4.5 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.1); Cody Barton: no games without him to compare, league number used, 4.3 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.1)); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect +15%. Watch: offensive line: Robert Hainsey (Questionable, concussion).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Moderate vs 26 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 11%, fair odds +790 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.03 |
| Matchup | +0.02 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | 0 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.02 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.07 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 13% less than average, so his raw 0.03 counts as 0.03. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: TEN allows 64% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 52°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Coen's offense vs Saleh's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 30% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 298 games since 2018, 1% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 20 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 13% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Anton Harrison (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Anton Harrison: his team +40% in 5 games without him vs 21 with); already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect +14%. TEN defensive front: Anthony Hill (Out, neck), Jeffery Simmons (no longer on the roster), Cody Barton (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Anthony Hill: no games without him to compare, league number used, 10.0 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.1); Jeffery Simmons: his team +77% in 3 games without him vs 22 with, 4.5 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.1); Cody Barton: no games without him to compare, league number used, 4.3 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.1)); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect +29%. Watch: offensive line: Robert Hainsey (Questionable, concussion).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | BAL | 242 | -1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 8 | IND | 210 | 10 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 6 | HOU | 306 | 11 | 0 | 4 |
| 2026 wk 5 | PHI | 331 | 25 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 4 | CIN | 227 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | NE | 182 | 25 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 2 | DEN | 189 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | CLE | 245 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.