WR · KC
Rashee Rice
Next: Week 10, KC at ATL, .
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 65.3 |
| Matchup | +3.1 |
| Weather | +1.3 |
| Coach / team | −3.5 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +2.6 |
| Injuries / lineup | −5.8 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 63.0 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. His schedule was about average. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: ATL allows 5% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 1 without vs 16 with). Effect +1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −47% in 1 without vs 16 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reid's offense vs Ulbrich's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 13% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 117 games since 2018, 1% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 5 games in that window (of his last 17), he was 10% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Jaylon Moore (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylon Moore: his team −24% in 5 games without him vs 20 with); already the case in 7 of his last 16 games). Effect −8%. ATL secondary: Jessie Bates III (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jessie Bates III: no games without him to compare, league number used, allows 7.6 yards per target (unit starters: 7.8)); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 36%, fair odds +181 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.60 |
| Matchup | −0.05 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.03 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.06 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.07 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.40 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% more than average, so his raw 0.63 counts as 0.60. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: ATL allows 8% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: +147% in 1 without vs 16 with). Effect −1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 1 without vs 16 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reid's offense vs Ulbrich's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 18% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 117 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 5 games in that window (of his last 17), he was 33% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Jaylon Moore (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylon Moore: his team −49% in 5 games without him vs 20 with); already the case in 7 of his last 16 games). Effect −12%. ATL secondary: Jessie Bates III (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jessie Bates III: no games without him to compare, league number used, allows 7.6 yards per target (unit starters: 7.8)); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | NYJ | 0 | 0 | 49 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | DEN | 0 | 0 | 53 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | MIA | 0 | 0 | 88 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | IND | 0 | 0 | 83 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | DEN | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 15 | LAC | 0 | 0 | 51 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 | HOU | 0 | 0 | 34 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 | DAL | 0 | 2 | 92 | 2 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.