RB · NYJ
Braelon Allen
Next: Week 10, BUF at NYJ, .
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 71.9 |
| Matchup | −6.8 |
| Weather | +1.7 |
| Coach / team | +0.5 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +9.3 |
| Injuries / lineup | −18.0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 58.6 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 8% more than average, so his raw 77.8 counts as 71.9. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: BUF allows 9% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 12 mph, 1% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −3% in 480 games; his own games: −35% in 4 without vs 26 with). Effect +2%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +0% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 1 without vs 29 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reich's offense vs Leonhard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 94 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 21 games in that window (of his last 30), he was 20% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: +6% in 1 without vs 29 with). Effect −0%. Lead running back: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide +101% in 1074 games; his own games: +150% in 6 without vs 24 with). Effect −28%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. BUF defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 11.4 |
| Matchup | +1.8 |
| Weather | +0.3 |
| Coach / team | +0.1 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +1.1 |
| Injuries / lineup | −1.1 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 13.6 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 8% more than average, so his raw 12.3 counts as 11.4. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: BUF allows 16% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 12 mph, 1% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −19% in 4 without vs 26 with). Effect +1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −46% in 1 without vs 29 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reich's offense vs Leonhard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 94 games since 2018, 2% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 21 games in that window (of his last 30), he was 11% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Geno Smith 7.3 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +37% in 1 without vs 29 with). Effect +0%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 12 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −17% in 26 without vs 4 with). Effect −2%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. BUF secondary: C.J. Gardner-Johnson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (C.J. Gardner-Johnson: his team −61% in 2 games without him vs 6 with, allows 7.7 yards per target (unit starters: 7.0)); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect −7%. Watch: Garrett Wilson is listed Questionable, concussion; Adonai Mitchell is listed Questionable, knee; BUF secondary: Christian Benford (Questionable, wrist).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 34%, fair odds +194 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.27 |
| Matchup | +0.06 |
| Weather | −0.01 |
| Coach / team | +0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.07 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.07 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.34 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 8% less than average, so his raw 0.25 counts as 0.27. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: BUF allows 23% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 12 mph, 1% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: +86% in 4 without vs 26 with). Effect −3%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 1 without vs 29 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reich's offense vs Leonhard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 94 games since 2018, 3% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 21 games in that window (of his last 30), he was 43% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: −70% in 1 without vs 29 with). Effect +2%. Lead running back: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide +108% in 1074 games; his own games: +69% in 6 without vs 24 with). Effect −22%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. BUF defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | KC | 0 | 33 | 21 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | LV | 0 | 147 | 6 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | MIA | 0 | 104 | 30 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | NE | 0 | 78 | 26 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | CLE | 0 | 116 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 4 | CHI | 0 | 59 | 8 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | DET | 0 | 14 | 3 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | GB | 0 | 7 | 8 | 1 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.