TE · TEN
Gunnar Helm
Next: Week 10, JAX at TEN, .
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 50 tight ends · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 21.6 |
| Matchup | −5.3 |
| Weather | +0.1 |
| Coach / team | +0.1 |
| Rest / bye | −0.8 |
| Game time | −0.6 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.2 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 15.3 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 7% more than average, so his raw 23.0 counts as 21.6. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: JAX allows 25% less to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 52°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −18% in 2 without vs 21 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Daboll's offense vs Campanile's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 55 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 3% below their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Daboll's offenses: 17% below in 4 games. This player: 54% above his average in 1 game after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 18 games in that window (of his last 23), he was 6% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: Carnell Tate (Out, shoulder) not expected to play (league-wide +16% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Carnell Tate takes 25% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: +68% in 17 without vs 6 with; already the case in 10 of his last 16 games). Effect +13%. Offensive line: Peter Skoronski (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Peter Skoronski: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −0%. JAX secondary: Eric Murray (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Eric Murray: his team −22% in 8 games without him vs 18 with, allows 7.8 yards per target (unit starters: 6.7)); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −10%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 45 tight ends · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 5%, fair odds +1732 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.05 |
| Matchup | 0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.04 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 12% more than average, so his raw 0.05 counts as 0.05. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: JAX allows 1% more to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 52°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 21 with). Effect +2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Daboll's offense vs Campanile's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 55 games since 2018, 5% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 1% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Daboll's offenses: 8% above in 4 games. This player: 100% below his average in 1 game after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 18 games in that window (of his last 23), he was 100% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: Carnell Tate (Out, shoulder) not expected to play (league-wide +10% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Carnell Tate takes 25% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); already the case in 10 of his last 16 games). Effect +4%. Offensive line: Peter Skoronski (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Peter Skoronski: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. JAX secondary: Eric Murray (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Eric Murray: his team −21% in 8 games without him vs 18 with, allows 7.8 yards per target (unit starters: 6.7)); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −10%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 8 | CIN | 0 | 0 | 76 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | CLE | 0 | 0 | 24 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | BAL | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | NYG | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | PHI | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | NYJ | 0 | 0 | 28 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 | NO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.