QB · BUF
Josh Allen
Next: Week 10, BUF at NYJ, .
Passing yards
Consistent vs 42 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 238.4 |
| Matchup | −13.2 |
| Weather | +11.4 |
| Coach / team | +20.3 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −2.4 |
| Injuries / lineup | +4.0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 258.5 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% less than average, so his raw 237.2 counts as 238.4. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: NYJ allows 6% less to the whole offense than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 12 mph, 1% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −24% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +2%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −24% in 8 without vs 26 with). Effect +3%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Brady's offense vs Glenn's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 41% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: Air Raid / spread offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 47 games since 2018, 2% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 15 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 2% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −5% in 1164 games; his own games: −9% in 28 without vs 6 with). Effect +4%. Offensive line: Spencer Brown (Doubtful, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Spencer Brown: his team −12% in 4 games without him vs 23 with); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect −3%. NYJ secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +1%. Watch: NYJ secondary: Jarvis Brownlee (Questionable, illness).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Passing touchdowns
Moderate vs 40 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
At least one: 82%, fair odds -451 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 1.43 |
| Matchup | +0.15 |
| Weather | +0.03 |
| Coach / team | +0.12 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.02 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.13 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 1.85 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 1.44 counts as 1.43. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: NYJ allows 11% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 12 mph, 1% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −13% in 480 games; his own games: −8% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −3% in 8 without vs 26 with). Effect +0%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Brady's offense vs Glenn's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 42% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: Air Raid / spread offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 47 games since 2018, 0% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 15 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 2% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 1164 games; his own games: +11% in 28 without vs 6 with). Effect −1%. Offensive line: Spencer Brown (Doubtful, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Spencer Brown: his team +24% in 4 games without him vs 23 with); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect +8%. NYJ secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide −2% in 1959 games). Effect +1%. Watch: NYJ secondary: Jarvis Brownlee (Questionable, illness).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Rushing yards
Moderate vs 25 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 37.3 |
| Matchup | −0.4 |
| Weather | +0.1 |
| Coach / team | +3.7 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −1.5 |
| Injuries / lineup | +2.1 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 41.1 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% more than average, so his raw 38.3 counts as 37.3. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: NYJ allows 1% less to quarterbacks than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 12 mph, 1% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −3% in 480 games; his own games: −22% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +0% in 144 games; his own games: +10% in 8 without vs 26 with). Effect −1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Brady's offense vs Glenn's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 83% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: Air Raid / spread offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 47 games since 2018, 5% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 15 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 6% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Spencer Brown (Doubtful, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Spencer Brown: his team +25% in 4 games without him vs 23 with); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect +6%. NYJ defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%. Watch: NYJ defensive front: Harrison Phillips (Questionable, ankle).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 26 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 64%, fair odds -180 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.73 |
| Matchup | +0.11 |
| Weather | +0.05 |
| Coach / team | +0.08 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.04 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 1.00 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 29% more than average, so his raw 0.94 counts as 0.73. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: NYJ allows 16% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 12 mph, 1% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −3% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −42% in 8 without vs 26 with). Effect +5%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Brady's offense vs Glenn's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 76% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: Air Raid / spread offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 47 games since 2018, 2% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 15 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 7% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Spencer Brown (Doubtful, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Spencer Brown: his team +1% in 4 games without him vs 23 with); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect +1%. NYJ defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%. Watch: NYJ defensive front: Harrison Phillips (Questionable, ankle).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | MIN | 234 | 15 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 8 | BAL | 289 | 30 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 6 | LV | 255 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 5 | LA | 210 | 121 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 4 | NE | 253 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 3 | LAC | 204 | 22 | 1 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 2 | DET | 248 | 69 | 0 | 5 |
| 2026 wk 1 | HOU | 334 | 23 | 0 | 4 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.