QB · TEN
Cam Ward
Next: Week 10, JAX at TEN, .
Passing yards
Moderate vs 42 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 185.6 |
| Matchup | +2.1 |
| Weather | −0.9 |
| Coach / team | +1.4 |
| Rest / bye | −12.6 |
| Game time | −1.7 |
| Injuries / lineup | −15.6 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 158.4 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% less than average, so his raw 180.8 counts as 185.6. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: JAX allows 1% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 52°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: +52% in 2 without vs 23 with). Effect −1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Daboll's offense vs Campanile's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 55 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 3% below their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Daboll's offenses: 17% below in 4 games. This player: 10% above his average in 1 game after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 20 games in that window (of his last 25), he was 1% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: Carnell Tate (Out, shoulder) not expected to play (league-wide −5% in 1164 games, scaled for his role: Carnell Tate takes 25% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: +14% in 18 without vs 7 with; already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect +2%. Offensive line: Peter Skoronski (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Peter Skoronski: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −0%. JAX secondary: Eric Murray (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Eric Murray: his team −22% in 8 games without him vs 18 with, allows 7.8 yards per target (unit starters: 6.7)); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect −10%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Passing touchdowns
Moderate vs 40 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
At least one: 63%, fair odds -168 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.98 |
| Matchup | −0.19 |
| Weather | −0.01 |
| Coach / team | +0.04 |
| Rest / bye | +0.03 |
| Game time | +0.02 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.04 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.91 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 6% less than average, so his raw 0.92 counts as 0.98. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: JAX allows 19% less to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 52°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −13% in 480 games; his own games: +83% in 2 without vs 23 with). Effect −1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Daboll's offense vs Campanile's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 55 games since 2018, 8% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 3% below their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Daboll's offenses: 8% above in 4 games. This player: 34% above his average in 1 game after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 20 games in that window (of his last 25), he was 3% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: Carnell Tate (Out, shoulder) not expected to play (league-wide −8% in 1164 games, scaled for his role: Carnell Tate takes 25% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: +87% in 18 without vs 7 with; already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect +15%. Offensive line: Peter Skoronski (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Peter Skoronski: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect +0%. JAX secondary: Eric Murray (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Eric Murray: his team −19% in 8 games without him vs 18 with, allows 7.8 yards per target (unit starters: 6.7)); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect −9%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 25 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 13.2 |
| Matchup | −1.5 |
| Weather | +0.1 |
| Coach / team | +0.7 |
| Rest / bye | +1.6 |
| Game time | +2.1 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.4 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 15.7 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 7% more than average, so his raw 14.1 counts as 13.2. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: JAX allows 11% less to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 52°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −3% in 480 games; his own games: −52% in 2 without vs 23 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Daboll's offense vs Campanile's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 55 games since 2018, 10% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 7% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Daboll's offenses: 16% above in 4 games. This player: 197% above his average in 1 game after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 20 games in that window (of his last 25), he was 26% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Peter Skoronski (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Peter Skoronski: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −2%. JAX defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Moderate vs 26 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 10%, fair odds +857 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.13 |
| Matchup | −0.02 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.02 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.13 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 40% more than average, so his raw 0.18 counts as 0.13. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: JAX allows 17% less to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 52°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 23 with). Effect +2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Daboll's offense vs Campanile's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 55 games since 2018, 5% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 1% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Daboll's offenses: 8% above in 4 games. This player: 100% below his average in 1 game after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 20 games in that window (of his last 25), he was 25% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Peter Skoronski (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Peter Skoronski: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. JAX defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −2%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 8 | CIN | 304 | 41 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 7 | CLE | 181 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | IND | 102 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 5 | HOU | 170 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | BAL | 222 | 27 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | NYG | 181 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 | PHI | 183 | 7 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 1 | NYJ | 140 | 21 | 0 | 1 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.