QB · LA
Matthew Stafford
Next: Week 10, LA at ARI, .
Passing yards
Moderate vs 42 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 258.4 |
| Matchup | −2.0 |
| Weather | +1.2 |
| Coach / team | −17.3 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +4.3 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.8 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 245.4 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 260.9 counts as 258.4. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: ARI allows 1% less to the whole offense than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 76°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: +23% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect −0%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −32% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McVay's offense vs Rallis's defense: 7 meetings since 2018, 11% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 15 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 3% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: Puka Nacua (on injured reserve), Davante Adams (on injured reserve) not expected to play (league-wide −5% in 1164 games, scaled for his role: Puka Nacua takes 35% of the team's targets, Davante Adams takes 22% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: −8% in 14 without vs 20 with; already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect −4%. Offensive line: Steve Avila (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Steve Avila: his team +16% in 4 games without him vs 25 with); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect +5%. ARI secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: ARI secondary: Max Melton (Questionable, knee), Andrew Wingard (Questionable, groin).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Passing touchdowns
Consistent vs 40 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
At least one: 86%, fair odds -601 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 1.67 |
| Matchup | +0.40 |
| Weather | +0.02 |
| Coach / team | −0.22 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.17 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.02 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 2.01 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 10% more than average, so his raw 1.84 counts as 1.67. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: ARI allows 24% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 76°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −13% in 480 games; his own games: +31% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect −0%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McVay's offense vs Rallis's defense: 7 meetings since 2018, 15% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 4% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 15 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 13% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: Puka Nacua (on injured reserve), Davante Adams (on injured reserve) not expected to play (league-wide −8% in 1164 games, scaled for his role: Puka Nacua takes 35% of the team's targets, Davante Adams takes 22% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: −4% in 14 without vs 20 with; already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect −4%. Offensive line: Steve Avila (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Steve Avila: his team +8% in 4 games without him vs 25 with); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect +3%. ARI secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −2% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: ARI secondary: Max Melton (Questionable, knee), Andrew Wingard (Questionable, groin).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 25 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 1.9 |
| Matchup | +0.3 |
| Weather | +0.0 |
| Coach / team | +0.0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.4 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.1 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 1.7 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 5% more than average, so his raw 2.0 counts as 1.9. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: ARI allows 13% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 76°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −3% in 480 games; his own games: +12% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect −0%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +0% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McVay's offense vs Rallis's defense: 7 meetings since 2018, 4% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 4% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 15 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 39% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Steve Avila (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Steve Avila: his team −2% in 4 games without him vs 25 with); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect −2%. ARI defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 26 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 3%, fair odds +3300 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.00 |
| Matchup | 0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | 0 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.00 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. His schedule was about average. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: ARI allows 53% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 76°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games). Effect +1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games). Effect +0%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McVay's offense vs Rallis's defense: 7 meetings since 2018, 14% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. No games in that window among his last 34, so no adjustment.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Steve Avila (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Steve Avila: his team −14% in 4 games without him vs 25 with); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect −4%. ARI defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | WAS | 228 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 8 | LAC | 157 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | LV | 195 | -3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 6 | ARI | 222 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 5 | BUF | 383 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 4 | PHI | 317 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | DEN | 390 | 13 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 2 | NYG | 327 | -1 | 0 | 4 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.