QB · NYJ
Geno Smith
Next: Week 10, BUF at NYJ, .
Passing yards
Consistent vs 42 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 220.8 |
| Matchup | +10.3 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +2.5 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +5.7 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.4 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 239.7 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 222.8 counts as 220.8. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: BUF allows 5% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 12 mph, 1% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reich's offense vs Leonhard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 94 games since 2018, 2% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 14 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 4% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 12 of his last 16 games (league-wide −5% in 1164 games; his own games: −16% in 30 without vs 4 with). Effect +8%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. BUF secondary: C.J. Gardner-Johnson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (C.J. Gardner-Johnson: his team −61% in 2 games without him vs 6 with, allows 7.7 yards per target (unit starters: 7.0)); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −7%. Watch: Garrett Wilson is listed Questionable, concussion; Adonai Mitchell is listed Questionable, knee; BUF secondary: Christian Benford (Questionable, wrist).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Passing touchdowns
Moderate vs 40 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
At least one: 79%, fair odds -369 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 1.23 |
| Matchup | +0.17 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.12 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.05 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 1.22 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 1.25 counts as 1.23. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: BUF allows 14% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 12 mph, 1% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reich's offense vs Leonhard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 94 games since 2018, 1% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 14 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 13% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 12 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 1164 games; his own games: −2% in 30 without vs 4 with). Effect +4%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide +1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. BUF secondary: C.J. Gardner-Johnson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (C.J. Gardner-Johnson: his team −100% in 2 games without him vs 6 with, allows 7.7 yards per target (unit starters: 7.0)); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −8%. Watch: Garrett Wilson is listed Questionable, concussion; Adonai Mitchell is listed Questionable, knee; BUF secondary: Christian Benford (Questionable, wrist).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 25 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 4.9 |
| Matchup | −0.7 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.8 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.1 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 3.5 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% less than average, so his raw 4.8 counts as 4.9. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: BUF allows 14% less to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 12 mph, 1% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reich's offense vs Leonhard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 94 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 14 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 30% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. BUF defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 26 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 3%, fair odds +3300 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.00 |
| Matchup | 0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | 0 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.00 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. His schedule was about average. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: BUF allows 0% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 12 mph, 1% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reich's offense vs Leonhard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 94 games since 2018, 3% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 14 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 100% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. BUF defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | KC | 165 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | LV | 290 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 7 | MIA | 287 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 6 | NE | 252 | -1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 5 | CLE | 182 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 4 | CHI | 119 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | DET | 321 | 12 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 2 | GB | 247 | 17 | 0 | 1 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.