WR · LA

Davante Adams

Not expected to play: on injured reserve

Next: Week 10, LA at ARI, Today, 4:05pm ET.

Receiving yards

Moderate vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games

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Factor	yds
Statistics	71.2
Matchup	−0.1
Weather	+1.2
Coach / team	−4.8
Rest / bye	0
Game time	−9.0
Injuries / lineup	+35.7
News	0
Projection	94.2

Why these numbers

Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 5% less than average, so his raw 67.7 counts as 71.2. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
Matchup: ARI allows 0% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 76°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −24% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect +1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −34% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
Coach / team: McVay's offense vs Rallis's defense: 7 meetings since 2018, 11% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 13 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 20% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
Injuries / lineup: Top targets: Puka Nacua (on injured reserve) not expected to play (league-wide +16% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Puka Nacua takes 35% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: +65% in 14 without vs 20 with; already the case in 2 of his last 16 games). Effect +44%. Offensive line: Steve Avila (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Steve Avila: his team +16% in 4 games without him vs 25 with); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect +4%. ARI secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does); ARI secondary: Max Melton (Questionable, knee), Andrew Wingard (Questionable, groin).
News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.

Anytime touchdown

Consistent vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games

Anytime touchdown: 37%, fair odds +171 (adjusted for this week)

Factor	TD
Statistics	0.60
Matchup	+0.14
Weather	+0.02
Coach / team	−0.07
Rest / bye	0
Game time	−0.13
Injuries / lineup	+0.06
News	0
Projection	0.62

Why these numbers

Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 11% more than average, so his raw 0.67 counts as 0.60. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
Matchup: ARI allows 22% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 76°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect +2%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −46% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
Coach / team: McVay's offense vs Rallis's defense: 7 meetings since 2018, 14% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 13 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 28% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
Injuries / lineup: Top targets: Puka Nacua (on injured reserve) not expected to play (league-wide +10% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Puka Nacua takes 35% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: +17% in 14 without vs 20 with; already the case in 2 of his last 16 games). Effect +14%. Offensive line: Steve Avila (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Steve Avila: his team −14% in 4 games without him vs 25 with); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect −4%. ARI secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −1%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does); ARI secondary: Max Melton (Questionable, knee), Andrew Wingard (Questionable, groin).
News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.

Recent games

Game	Opp	Rec	TD
2026 wk 6	ARI	39	0
2026 wk 5	BUF	51	2
2026 wk 4	PHI	32	0
2026 wk 3	DEN	137	0
2026 wk 2	NYG	195	2
2026 wk 1	SF	26	0
2025 wk 21 (playoffs)	SEA	89	1
2025 wk 20 (playoffs)	CHI	24	0

Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.