WR · SF
Mike Evans
Not expected to play: Out, achilles
Next: Week 10, SF at DAL, .
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 72.4 |
| Matchup | +3.7 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.5 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +11.4 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.9 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 88.9 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 7% less than average, so his raw 67.2 counts as 72.4. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: DAL allows 5% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 50°F, wind 10 mph, 18% chance of rain or snow, Slight Chance Rain Showers. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Shanahan's offense vs Parker's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 8 games in that window (of his last 29), he was 30% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −17% in 23 without vs 6 with). Effect +0%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. DAL secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does); offensive line: Trent Williams (Questionable, shoulder); DAL secondary: DaRon Bland (Questionable, ankle).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 52%, fair odds -107 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.45 |
| Matchup | +0.07 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.08 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.04 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.55 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% less than average, so his raw 0.44 counts as 0.45. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: DAL allows 15% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 50°F, wind 10 mph, 18% chance of rain or snow, Slight Chance Rain Showers. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Shanahan's offense vs Parker's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 2% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 8 games in that window (of his last 29), he was 45% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: +22% in 23 without vs 6 with). Effect −9%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +3%. DAL secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −0%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does); offensive line: Trent Williams (Questionable, shoulder); DAL secondary: DaRon Bland (Questionable, ankle).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 6 | WAS | 0 | 0 | 94 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | SEA | 0 | 0 | 113 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 4 | DEN | 0 | 0 | 76 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | ARI | 0 | 0 | 34 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 | MIA | 0 | 0 | 54 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | LA | 0 | 0 | 49 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 18 | CAR | 0 | 0 | 34 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 | MIA | 0 | 0 | 31 | 1 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.