QB · NYG
Jameis Winston
Next: Week 11, JAX at NYG, .
Passing yards
Boom or bust vs 42 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 127.7 |
| Matchup | +1.4 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −2.5 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −4.7 |
| Injuries / lineup | −26.5 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 95.4 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% more than average, so his raw 131.4 counts as 127.7. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: JAX allows 1% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: No forecast for this game yet (forecasts reach about six days ahead and cover US stadiums). Counted as 0.
- Coach / team: Nagy's offense vs Campanile's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 70 games since 2018, 3% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 18 games in that window (of his last 22), he was 5% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −5% in 1164 games; his own games: +50% in 14 without vs 8 with). Effect −12%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. JAX secondary: Eric Murray (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Eric Murray: his team −22% in 8 games without him vs 18 with, allows 7.8 yards per target (unit starters: 6.7)); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect −10%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Passing touchdowns
Boom or bust vs 40 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
At least one: 37%, fair odds +168 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 1.11 |
| Matchup | −0.22 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.13 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.76 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 1.13 counts as 1.11. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: JAX allows 19% less to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: No forecast for this game yet (forecasts reach about six days ahead and cover US stadiums). Counted as 0.
- Coach / team: Nagy's offense vs Campanile's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 70 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 18 games in that window (of his last 22), he was 2% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 1164 games; his own games: +26% in 14 without vs 8 with). Effect −5%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +1% in 1851 games). Effect −0%. JAX secondary: Eric Murray (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Eric Murray: his team −19% in 8 games without him vs 18 with, allows 7.8 yards per target (unit starters: 6.7)); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect −9%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 25 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 9.2 |
| Matchup | −1.1 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.3 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.3 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 8.7 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 7% less than average, so his raw 8.6 counts as 9.2. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: JAX allows 12% less to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: No forecast for this game yet (forecasts reach about six days ahead and cover US stadiums). Counted as 0.
- Coach / team: Nagy's offense vs Campanile's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 70 games since 2018, 5% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 18 games in that window (of his last 22), he was 6% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. JAX defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 26 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 15%, fair odds +586 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.18 |
| Matchup | −0.03 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.02 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.13 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 15% more than average, so his raw 0.20 counts as 0.18. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: JAX allows 16% less to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: No forecast for this game yet (forecasts reach about six days ahead and cover US stadiums). Counted as 0.
- Coach / team: Nagy's offense vs Campanile's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 70 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 18 games in that window (of his last 22), he was 18% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. JAX defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 10 | WAS | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 9 | PHI | 71 | 11 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | HOU | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 6 | NO | 152 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 5 | WAS | 326 | 27 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 4 | ARI | 250 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 3 | TEN | 118 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | LA | 111 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.