WR · WAS
Stefon Diggs
Next: Week 11, CIN at WAS, .
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 52.5 |
| Matchup | −2.2 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.3 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +7.5 |
| Injuries / lineup | +2.2 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 59.6 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 5% less than average, so his raw 50.0 counts as 52.5. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: CIN allows 4% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: No forecast for this game yet (forecasts reach about six days ahead and cover US stadiums). Counted as 0.
- Coach / team: Blough's offense vs Golden's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 72 games since 2018, 1% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 8 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 38% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Jayden Daniels 7.2 yards per attempt vs Marcus Mariota 7.1, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −29% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect +2%. Top targets: Terry McLaurin (on injured reserve) not expected to play (league-wide +16% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Terry McLaurin takes 17% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: +14% in 32 without vs 2 with; already the case in 14 of his last 16 games). Effect +1%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. CIN secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 43%, fair odds +133 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.47 |
| Matchup | +0.03 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.02 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.02 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.03 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.48 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 6% more than average, so his raw 0.50 counts as 0.47. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: CIN allows 7% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: No forecast for this game yet (forecasts reach about six days ahead and cover US stadiums). Counted as 0.
- Coach / team: Blough's offense vs Golden's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 72 games since 2018, 5% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 8 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 6% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Jayden Daniels 4.8 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs Marcus Mariota 4.9, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +69% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect −4%. Top targets: Terry McLaurin (on injured reserve) not expected to play (league-wide +10% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Terry McLaurin takes 17% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: −66% in 32 without vs 2 with; already the case in 14 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. CIN secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −1%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 10 | NYG | 0 | 0 | 83 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 9 | LA | 0 | 0 | 51 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | PHI | 0 | 0 | 38 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 6 | SF | 0 | 0 | 44 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 4 | IND | 0 | 0 | 35 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | SEA | 0 | 0 | 33 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | DAL | 0 | 0 | 47 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 1 | PHI | 0 | 0 | 55 | 1 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.