TE · CAR
Darren Waller
Next: Week 10, CAR at NO, .
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 50 tight ends · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 31.6 |
| Matchup | +3.4 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −1.6 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.2 |
| Injuries / lineup | +1.9 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 35.5 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 10% more than average, so his raw 34.7 counts as 31.6. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: NO allows 11% more to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Canales's offense vs Staley's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 15% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 13 games in that window (of his last 17), he was 1% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Bryce Young 6.6 yards per attempt vs Kenny Pickett 6.1, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −59% in 2 without vs 15 with). Effect +3%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −20% in 10 without vs 7 with). Effect +2%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. NO secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 45 tight ends · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 38%, fair odds +164 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.47 |
| Matchup | +0.07 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.02 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.04 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.03 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.49 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 7% more than average, so his raw 0.50 counts as 0.47. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: NO allows 15% more to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Canales's offense vs Staley's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 11% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 13 games in that window (of his last 17), he was 13% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Bryce Young 4.6 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs Kenny Pickett 3.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 15 with). Effect +5%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: −3% in 10 without vs 7 with). Effect −2%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. NO secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | DEN | 0 | 0 | 90 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 8 | GB | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | TB | 0 | 0 | 50 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 6 | PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | DET | 0 | 0 | 36 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | CLE | 0 | 0 | 51 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | ATL | 0 | 0 | 33 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 1 | CHI | 0 | 0 | 28 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.