RB · BAL
Derrick Henry
Next: Week 10, LAC at BAL, .
Rushing yards
Consistent vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 66.4 |
| Matchup | +5.1 |
| Weather | −1.7 |
| Coach / team | +3.5 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +11.5 |
| Injuries / lineup | −1.3 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 83.5 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% less than average, so his raw 64.4 counts as 66.4. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: LAC allows 8% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 45°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Clear. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide +0% in 144 games; his own games: +42% in 5 without vs 29 with). Effect −2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Doyle's offense vs O'Leary's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 71 games since 2018, 8% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 11 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 28% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Tyler Huntley is not expected to play (on injured reserve) (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: −8% in 10 without vs 24 with; already the case in 7 of his last 16 games). Effect −2%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. LAC defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 8.5 |
| Matchup | −1.6 |
| Weather | +0.2 |
| Coach / team | −0.1 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −1.0 |
| Injuries / lineup | −1.6 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 4.4 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 11% more than average, so his raw 9.4 counts as 8.5. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: LAC allows 19% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 45°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Clear. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −46% in 5 without vs 29 with). Effect +3%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Doyle's offense vs O'Leary's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 71 games since 2018, 2% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 11 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 26% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Tyler Huntley is not expected to play (on injured reserve) (quarterback gap: Tyler Huntley 6.7 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −54% in 10 without vs 24 with; already the case in 7 of his last 16 games). Effect −24%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −42% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect +0%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. LAC secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 70%, fair odds -237 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.76 |
| Matchup | +0.11 |
| Weather | −0.01 |
| Coach / team | +0.03 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.15 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.26 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 1.30 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 10% more than average, so his raw 0.83 counts as 0.76. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: LAC allows 15% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 45°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Clear. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: +18% in 5 without vs 29 with). Effect −1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Doyle's offense vs O'Leary's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 71 games since 2018, 5% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 11 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 41% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Tyler Huntley is not expected to play (on injured reserve) (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: +123% in 10 without vs 24 with; already the case in 7 of his last 16 games). Effect +30%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. LAC defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | JAX | -3 | 57 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | BUF | 0 | 53 | 7 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | CIN | 0 | 45 | 4 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | CLE | 0 | 58 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | ATL | 0 | 102 | 18 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 4 | TEN | 0 | 73 | 6 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | DAL | 0 | 89 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 2 | NO | 0 | 68 | 19 | 1 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.