QB · DAL
Dak Prescott
Next: Week 10, SF at DAL, .
Passing yards
Consistent vs 42 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 275.9 |
| Matchup | −7.3 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −2.9 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.2 |
| Injuries / lineup | +1.8 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 267.4 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% less than average, so his raw 271.6 counts as 275.9. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: SF allows 3% less to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 50°F, wind 10 mph, 18% chance of rain or snow, Slight Chance Rain Showers. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Schottenheimer's offense vs Morris's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 4% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 101 games since 2018, 5% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 0% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −5% in 1164 games; his own games: −3% in 13 without vs 21 with). Effect +0%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. SF secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: SF secondary: Renardo Green (Questionable, back), Deommodore Lenoir (Questionable, foot).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Passing touchdowns
Consistent vs 40 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
At least one: 91%, fair odds -1064 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 1.58 |
| Matchup | −0.08 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.18 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.03 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.02 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 1.63 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% more than average, so his raw 1.63 counts as 1.58. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: SF allows 5% less to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 50°F, wind 10 mph, 18% chance of rain or snow, Slight Chance Rain Showers. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Schottenheimer's offense vs Morris's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 47% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 101 games since 2018, 3% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 4% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 1164 games; his own games: +13% in 13 without vs 21 with). Effect −0%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide +1% in 1851 games). Effect −0%. SF secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −2% in 1959 games). Effect −0%. Watch: SF secondary: Renardo Green (Questionable, back), Deommodore Lenoir (Questionable, foot).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 25 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 9.6 |
| Matchup | −3.6 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.3 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.0 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 5.7 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 6% more than average, so his raw 10.1 counts as 9.6. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: SF allows 38% less to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 50°F, wind 10 mph, 18% chance of rain or snow, Slight Chance Rain Showers. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Schottenheimer's offense vs Morris's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 14% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 101 games since 2018, 1% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 0% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. SF defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −2%. Watch: SF defensive front: Dre Greenlaw (Questionable, knee).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 26 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 17%, fair odds +484 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.10 |
| Matchup | +0.02 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.02 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.15 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 54% more than average, so his raw 0.15 counts as 0.10. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: SF allows 24% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 50°F, wind 10 mph, 18% chance of rain or snow, Slight Chance Rain Showers. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Schottenheimer's offense vs Morris's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 29% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 101 games since 2018, 4% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 43% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. SF defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −2%. Watch: SF defensive front: Dre Greenlaw (Questionable, knee).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | IND | 335 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 8 | ARI | 195 | 20 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 7 | PHI | 212 | 8 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 6 | GB | 258 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 5 | TB | 316 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 4 | HOU | 335 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | BAL | 276 | 19 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 | WAS | 279 | 26 | 0 | 4 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.