QB · DET
Jared Goff
Next: Week 11, TB at DET, .
Passing yards
Consistent vs 42 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 266.1 |
| Matchup | −5.0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −1.1 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −9.5 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.2 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 250.7 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% less than average, so his raw 262.3 counts as 266.1. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: TB allows 2% less to the whole offense than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Petzing's offense vs Bowles's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 4% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 13 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 6% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −5% in 1164 games; his own games: +8% in 9 without vs 25 with). Effect −1%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. TB secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Passing touchdowns
Consistent vs 40 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
At least one: 91%, fair odds -994 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 1.78 |
| Matchup | −0.13 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.05 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.08 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 1.79 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% more than average, so his raw 1.81 counts as 1.78. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: TB allows 7% less to the whole offense than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Petzing's offense vs Bowles's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 1% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 0% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 13 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 5% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 1164 games; his own games: −7% in 9 without vs 25 with). Effect +4%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide +1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. TB secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −2% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 25 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 3.1 |
| Matchup | −0.5 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.1 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.5 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.1 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 3.2 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 15% less than average, so his raw 2.6 counts as 3.1. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: TB allows 17% less to quarterbacks than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Petzing's offense vs Bowles's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 20% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 13 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 49% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +3%. TB defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 26 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 5%, fair odds +2085 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.04 |
| Matchup | 0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.03 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 54% more than average, so his raw 0.06 counts as 0.04. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: TB allows 0% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Petzing's offense vs Bowles's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 16% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Pressure / blitz-heavy defenses, 278 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 13 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 100% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +3%. TB defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −2%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | MIA | 170 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | MIN | 176 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | GB | 303 | -1 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 5 | ARI | 271 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 2026 wk 4 | CAR | 412 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | NYJ | 269 | 6 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 2 | BUF | 327 | 7 | 0 | 4 |
| 2026 wk 1 | NO | 206 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.