TE · LA
Tyler Higbee
Next: Week 10, LA at ARI, .
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 50 tight ends · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 29.7 |
| Matchup | −1.3 |
| Weather | +0.2 |
| Coach / team | −1.9 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −1.2 |
| Injuries / lineup | +5.5 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 30.9 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 5% more than average, so his raw 31.2 counts as 29.7. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: ARI allows 4% less to tight ends than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 76°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: +42% in 2 without vs 24 with). Effect −0%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −38% in 2 without vs 24 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McVay's offense vs Rallis's defense: 7 meetings since 2018, 11% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 14 games in that window (of his last 26), he was 7% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: Puka Nacua (on injured reserve), Davante Adams (on injured reserve) not expected to play (league-wide +16% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Puka Nacua takes 35% of the team's targets, Davante Adams takes 22% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: +20% in 11 without vs 15 with; already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect +14%. Offensive line: Steve Avila (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Steve Avila: his team +16% in 4 games without him vs 25 with); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect +4%. ARI secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: ARI secondary: Max Melton (Questionable, knee), Andrew Wingard (Questionable, groin).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 45 tight ends · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 19%, fair odds +420 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.08 |
| Matchup | +0.04 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | 0 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.05 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.16 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 24% more than average, so his raw 0.10 counts as 0.08. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: ARI allows 48% more to tight ends than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 76°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: +150% in 2 without vs 24 with). Effect −2%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: +103% in 2 without vs 24 with). Effect −2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McVay's offense vs Rallis's defense: 7 meetings since 2018, 14% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 14 games in that window (of his last 26), he was 4% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: Puka Nacua (on injured reserve), Davante Adams (on injured reserve) not expected to play (league-wide +10% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Puka Nacua takes 35% of the team's targets, Davante Adams takes 22% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: +150% in 11 without vs 15 with; already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect +47%. Offensive line: Steve Avila (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Steve Avila: his team −14% in 4 games without him vs 25 with); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −4%. ARI secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: ARI secondary: Max Melton (Questionable, knee), Andrew Wingard (Questionable, groin).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | WAS | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | LAC | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | LV | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | ARI | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | BUF | 0 | 0 | 83 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | PHI | 0 | 0 | 67 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | DEN | 0 | 0 | 62 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 | SF | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.