QB · ARI
Jacoby Brissett
Next: Week 10, LA at ARI, .
Passing yards
Moderate vs 42 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 227.6 |
| Matchup | −14.3 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +3.4 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +17.2 |
| Injuries / lineup | −68.0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 165.8 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 228.9 counts as 227.6. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: LA allows 6% less to the whole offense than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 76°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: LaFleur's offense vs Shula's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 6% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 16 games in that window (of his last 29), he was 12% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: Michael Wilson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (league-wide −5% in 1164 games, scaled for his role: Michael Wilson takes 26% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: −46% in 7 without vs 22 with; already the case in 0 of his last 16 games). Effect −27%. Offensive line: Hjalte Froholdt (Out, concussion), Paris Johnson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Hjalte Froholdt: no games without him to compare, league number used; Paris Johnson: his team −8% in 10 games without him vs 16 with); already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect −4%. LA secondary: Jaylen Watson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylen Watson: his team −15% in 2 games without him vs 7 with, allows 7.1 yards per target (unit starters: 6.8)); already the case in 10 of his last 16 games). Effect −3%. Watch: offensive line: Jayden Williams (Questionable, knee); LA secondary: Kamren Curl (Questionable, toe), Trent McDuffie (Questionable, back).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Passing touchdowns
Consistent vs 40 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
At least one: 45%, fair odds +124 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 1.20 |
| Matchup | −0.14 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.11 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.07 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.41 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.61 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 6% more than average, so his raw 1.27 counts as 1.20. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: LA allows 11% less to the whole offense than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 76°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: LaFleur's offense vs Shula's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 70% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 4% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 16 games in that window (of his last 29), he was 10% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: Michael Wilson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (league-wide −8% in 1164 games, scaled for his role: Michael Wilson takes 26% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: −70% in 7 without vs 22 with; already the case in 0 of his last 16 games). Effect −42%. Offensive line: Hjalte Froholdt (Out, concussion), Paris Johnson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Hjalte Froholdt: no games without him to compare, league number used; Paris Johnson: his team −2% in 10 games without him vs 16 with); already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect +2%. LA secondary: Jaylen Watson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylen Watson: his team +31% in 2 games without him vs 7 with, allows 7.1 yards per target (unit starters: 6.8)); already the case in 10 of his last 16 games). Effect +4%. Watch: offensive line: Jayden Williams (Questionable, knee); LA secondary: Kamren Curl (Questionable, toe), Trent McDuffie (Questionable, back).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Rushing yards
Moderate vs 25 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 10.6 |
| Matchup | +3.3 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.3 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +1.2 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.6 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 14.8 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% more than average, so his raw 10.8 counts as 10.6. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: LA allows 31% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 76°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: LaFleur's offense vs Shula's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 27% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 4% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 16 games in that window (of his last 29), he was 13% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Hjalte Froholdt (Out, concussion), Paris Johnson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Hjalte Froholdt: no games without him to compare, league number used; Paris Johnson: his team −2% in 10 games without him vs 16 with); already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect −4%. LA defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%. Watch: offensive line: Jayden Williams (Questionable, knee).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 26 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 7%, fair odds +1424 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.05 |
| Matchup | +0.01 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | 0 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.01 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.05 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 24% more than average, so his raw 0.06 counts as 0.05. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: LA allows 16% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 76°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: LaFleur's offense vs Shula's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 72% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 16 games in that window (of his last 29), he was 2% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Hjalte Froholdt (Out, concussion), Paris Johnson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Hjalte Froholdt: no games without him to compare, league number used; Paris Johnson: his team −28% in 10 games without him vs 16 with); already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect −13%. LA defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%. Watch: offensive line: Jayden Williams (Questionable, knee).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 8 | DAL | 119 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | DEN | 272 | 16 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 6 | LA | 218 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | DET | 292 | 19 | 7 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 4 | NYG | 166 | 18 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 3 | SF | 280 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 2 | SEA | 95 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 | LAC | 277 | 14 | 0 | 1 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.