RB · SF
Christian McCaffrey
Next: Week 10, SF at DAL, .
Rushing yards
Consistent vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 65.0 |
| Matchup | +8.3 |
| Weather | −0.8 |
| Coach / team | −2.7 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −4.2 |
| Injuries / lineup | +1.7 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 67.3 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% less than average, so his raw 64.7 counts as 65.0. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: DAL allows 13% more to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 50°F, wind 10 mph, 18% chance of rain or snow, Slight Chance Rain Showers. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −3% in 480 games; his own games: −23% in 2 without vs 29 with). Effect −1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Shanahan's offense vs Parker's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 4% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 15 games in that window (of his last 31), he was 9% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. DAL defensive front: Donovan Ezeiruaku (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Donovan Ezeiruaku: no games without him to compare, league number used, 2.8 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.5)); already the case in 3 of his last 16 games). Effect +2%. Watch: offensive line: Trent Williams (Questionable, shoulder).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 34.6 |
| Matchup | −2.8 |
| Weather | +0.7 |
| Coach / team | +0.2 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −1.2 |
| Injuries / lineup | +3.8 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 35.2 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% more than average, so his raw 35.8 counts as 34.6. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: DAL allows 8% less to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 50°F, wind 10 mph, 18% chance of rain or snow, Slight Chance Rain Showers. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −9% in 2 without vs 29 with). Effect +2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Shanahan's offense vs Parker's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 15 games in that window (of his last 31), he was 6% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: Mike Evans (Out, achilles) not expected to play (league-wide +16% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Mike Evans takes 23% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: +61% in 25 without vs 6 with; already the case in 10 of his last 16 games). Effect +12%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. DAL secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: offensive line: Trent Williams (Questionable, shoulder); DAL secondary: DaRon Bland (Questionable, ankle).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 87%, fair odds -651 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 1.08 |
| Matchup | +0.32 |
| Weather | +0.02 |
| Coach / team | −0.02 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.03 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 1.44 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4% more than average, so his raw 1.13 counts as 1.08. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: DAL allows 30% more to running backs than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 50°F, wind 10 mph, 18% chance of rain or snow, Slight Chance Rain Showers. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: +60% in 2 without vs 29 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Shanahan's offense vs Parker's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 2% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 15 games in that window (of his last 31), he was 1% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. DAL defensive front: Donovan Ezeiruaku (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Donovan Ezeiruaku: no games without him to compare, league number used, 2.8 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.5)); already the case in 3 of his last 16 games). Effect +2%. Watch: offensive line: Trent Williams (Questionable, shoulder).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | LV | 0 | 68 | 19 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 7 | ATL | 0 | 39 | 61 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 6 | WAS | 0 | 64 | 53 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 5 | SEA | 0 | 68 | 15 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 4 | DEN | 0 | 52 | 18 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | ARI | 0 | 75 | 41 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 | MIA | 0 | 23 | 43 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 1 | LA | 0 | 68 | 20 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.