QB · KC
Patrick Mahomes
Next: Week 10, KC at ATL, .
Passing yards
Consistent vs 42 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 258.9 |
| Matchup | +5.0 |
| Weather | +4.3 |
| Coach / team | −13.5 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +3.4 |
| Injuries / lineup | −19.4 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 238.8 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% less than average, so his raw 256.9 counts as 258.9. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: ATL allows 2% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −26% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −16% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reid's offense vs Ulbrich's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 13% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 117 games since 2018, 1% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 2% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −5% in 1164 games; his own games: −7% in 21 without vs 13 with). Effect +1%. Offensive line: Jaylon Moore (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylon Moore: his team −24% in 5 games without him vs 20 with); already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect −8%. ATL secondary: Jessie Bates III (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jessie Bates III: no games without him to compare, league number used, allows 7.6 yards per target (unit starters: 7.8)); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Passing touchdowns
Boom or bust vs 40 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
At least one: 53%, fair odds -112 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 1.44 |
| Matchup | +0.03 |
| Weather | +0.03 |
| Coach / team | −0.13 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.02 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.20 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 1.14 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 10% more than average, so his raw 1.58 counts as 1.44. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: ATL allows 2% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −13% in 480 games; his own games: +12% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +0%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −63% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reid's offense vs Ulbrich's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 24% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 117 games since 2018, 1% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 3% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 1164 games; his own games: +4% in 21 without vs 13 with). Effect +0%. Offensive line: Jaylon Moore (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylon Moore: his team −65% in 5 games without him vs 20 with); already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect −12%. ATL secondary: Jessie Bates III (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jessie Bates III: no games without him to compare, league number used, allows 7.6 yards per target (unit starters: 7.8)); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 25 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 13.3 |
| Matchup | −5.0 |
| Weather | −0.1 |
| Coach / team | +1.2 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.1 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.6 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 10.2 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 13.4 counts as 13.3. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: ATL allows 38% less to quarterbacks than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −3% in 480 games; his own games: −10% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +0%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +0% in 144 games; his own games: +87% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect −2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reid's offense vs Ulbrich's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 47% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 117 games since 2018, 3% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 3% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Jaylon Moore (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylon Moore: his team −36% in 5 games without him vs 20 with); already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect −12%. ATL defensive front: Divine Deablo (Doubtful, forearm) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Divine Deablo: his team +71% in 6 games without him vs 20 with, 4.8 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.4)); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect +22%. Watch: ATL defensive front: Gervon Dexter (Questionable, illness).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 26 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 14%, fair odds +613 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.14 |
| Matchup | +0.02 |
| Weather | −0.01 |
| Coach / team | −0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.02 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.12 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 8% less than average, so his raw 0.13 counts as 0.14. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: ATL allows 16% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: +128% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect −3%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: +150% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect −4%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Reid's offense vs Ulbrich's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 18% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 117 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 27% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Jaylon Moore (Out, ankle) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylon Moore: his team −49% in 5 games without him vs 20 with); already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect −11%. ATL defensive front: Divine Deablo (Doubtful, forearm) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Divine Deablo: his team +33% in 6 games without him vs 20 with, 4.8 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.4)); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect +16%. Watch: ATL defensive front: Gervon Dexter (Questionable, illness).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | NYJ | 242 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 8 | DEN | 321 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 7 | SEA | 165 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | LAC | 272 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | LV | 225 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 3 | MIA | 246 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 2 | IND | 382 | 17 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 1 | DEN | 184 | 23 | 0 | 3 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.