TE · HOU
Dalton Schultz
Next: Week 10, HOU at CLE, .
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 50 tight ends · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 41.7 |
| Matchup | +1.4 |
| Weather | +0.9 |
| Coach / team | +0.4 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +3.2 |
| Injuries / lineup | −3.5 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 44.1 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 5% more than average, so his raw 43.9 counts as 41.7. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: CLE allows 3% more to tight ends than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −29% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Caley's offense vs Rutenberg's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Zone 4-3 (Tampa 2 tree) defenses, 67 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 20 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 11% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +44% in 7 without vs 27 with). Effect −7%. Offensive line: Keylan Rutledge (Out, neck) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Keylan Rutledge: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect −0%. CLE secondary: Ronnie Hickman (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Ronnie Hickman: no games without him to compare, league number used, allows 8.6 yards per target (unit starters: 7.3)); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. Watch: offensive line: Trent Brown (Questionable, wrist).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 45 tight ends · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 16%, fair odds +533 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.12 |
| Matchup | +0.03 |
| Weather | −0.01 |
| Coach / team | −0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.03 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.02 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.14 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 6% more than average, so his raw 0.13 counts as 0.12. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: CLE allows 21% more to tight ends than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 12 mph, 31% chance of rain or snow, Chance Light Rain. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: +130% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect −6%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Caley's offense vs Rutenberg's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Zone 4-3 (Tampa 2 tree) defenses, 67 games since 2018, 6% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 20 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 28% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: +121% in 7 without vs 27 with). Effect −15%. Offensive line: Keylan Rutledge (Out, neck) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Keylan Rutledge: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect −0%. CLE secondary: Ronnie Hickman (Out, concussion) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Ronnie Hickman: no games without him to compare, league number used, allows 8.6 yards per target (unit starters: 7.3)); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. Watch: offensive line: Trent Brown (Questionable, wrist).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | LAC | 0 | 0 | 42 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | NYG | 0 | 0 | 45 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | JAX | 0 | 0 | 33 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | TEN | 0 | 0 | 30 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | DAL | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | IND | 0 | 0 | 30 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | CIN | 0 | 0 | 140 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | BUF | 0 | 0 | 35 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.