TE · CIN
Mike Gesicki
Next: Week 10, PIT at CIN, .
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 50 tight ends · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 35.7 |
| Matchup | +0.9 |
| Weather | −1.3 |
| Coach / team | −1.2 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −3.6 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.5 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 30.8 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 9% less than average, so his raw 32.6 counts as 35.7. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: PIT allows 2% more to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: +88% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect −4%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Taylor's offense vs Graham's defense: 4 meetings since 2018, 5% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 175 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 7 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 21% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Joe Burrow 7.5 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −61% in 5 without vs 29 with). Effect +7%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +46% in 7 without vs 27 with). Effect −6%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. PIT secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 45 tight ends · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 59%, fair odds -146 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.58 |
| Matchup | −0.08 |
| Weather | −0.01 |
| Coach / team | +0.08 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.07 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.07 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.58 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 9% more than average, so his raw 0.64 counts as 0.58. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: PIT allows 14% less to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: +26% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect −1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Taylor's offense vs Graham's defense: 4 meetings since 2018, 29% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 175 games since 2018, 3% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 7 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 100% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Joe Burrow 6.7 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs a typical backup 3.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −70% in 5 without vs 29 with). Effect +12%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: −29% in 7 without vs 27 with). Effect +2%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. PIT secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | ATL | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | TEN | 0 | 0 | 76 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | BAL | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 5 | MIA | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 4 | JAX | 0 | 0 | 40 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | PIT | 0 | 0 | 37 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 | TB | 0 | 0 | 78 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 18 | CLE | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.