QB · TB
Baker Mayfield
Next: Week 11, TB at DET, .
Passing yards
Boom or bust vs 42 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 171.4 |
| Matchup | +20.6 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −3.7 |
| Rest / bye | +9.0 |
| Game time | −4.8 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.8 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 193.3 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% less than average, so his raw 166.7 counts as 171.4. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: DET allows 12% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Robinson's offense vs Sheppard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 175 games since 2018, 2% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 3% below their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Robinson's offenses: 6% above in 2 games. This player: 32% above his average in 2 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 19 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 4% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −5% in 1164 games; his own games: +4% in 15 without vs 19 with). Effect −0%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. DET secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Passing touchdowns
Moderate vs 40 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
At least one: 53%, fair odds -111 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.54 |
| Matchup | +0.15 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | −0.06 |
| Game time | 0 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.02 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.61 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 12% less than average, so his raw 0.48 counts as 0.54. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: DET allows 28% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Robinson's offense vs Sheppard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 175 games since 2018, 0% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 3% below their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Robinson's offenses: 39% below in 2 games. This player: 5% below his average in 2 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 19 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 0% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 1164 games; his own games: +26% in 15 without vs 19 with). Effect −3%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide +1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. DET secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −2% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 25 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 20.5 |
| Matchup | +2.4 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.3 |
| Rest / bye | +1.0 |
| Game time | +3.2 |
| Injuries / lineup | +1.0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 28.4 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 7% less than average, so his raw 19.0 counts as 20.5. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: DET allows 12% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Robinson's offense vs Sheppard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 175 games since 2018, 2% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 7% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Robinson's offenses: 28% above in 2 games. This player: 36% below his average in 2 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 19 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 20% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. DET defensive front: Jack Campbell (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jack Campbell: his team −30% in 1 games without him vs 24 with, 9.4 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.7)); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect +3%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 26 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 20%, fair odds +402 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.11 |
| Matchup | +0.03 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | +0.01 |
| Game time | +0.03 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.17 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 18% more than average, so his raw 0.13 counts as 0.11. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: DET allows 24% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Robinson's offense vs Sheppard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Man-heavy multiple (Belichick tree) defenses, 175 games since 2018, 3% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 1% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Robinson's offenses: 6% below in 2 games. This player: 487% above his average in 2 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 19 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 79% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. DET defensive front: Jack Campbell (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jack Campbell: his team −100% in 1 games without him vs 24 with, 9.4 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.7)); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect +3%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | CHI | 243 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | ATL | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | CAR | 64 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | MIN | 217 | 6 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 | CLE | 182 | 29 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 | CIN | 216 | 30 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 18 | CAR | 203 | 31 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 17 | MIA | 346 | 16 | 0 | 2 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.