QB · SEA
Sam Darnold
Not expected to play: Out, ribs
Next: Week 10, SEA at LV, .
Passing yards
Boom or bust vs 42 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 210.9 |
| Matchup | +8.1 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +2.2 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +2.7 |
| Injuries / lineup | −10.3 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 213.7 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 213.3 counts as 210.9. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: LV allows 4% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Fleury's offense vs Leonard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 13 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 2% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −5% in 1164 games; his own games: +17% in 16 without vs 18 with). Effect −1%. Offensive line: Charles Cross (Out, ankle), Christian Haynes (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Charles Cross: his team −20% in 5 games without him vs 24 with; Christian Haynes: his team +5% in 20 games without him vs 9 with); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect −5%. LV secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +1%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Passing touchdowns
Boom or bust vs 40 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
At least one: 71%, fair odds -240 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 1.29 |
| Matchup | +0.36 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.03 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.03 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.16 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 1.42 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% more than average, so his raw 1.31 counts as 1.29. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: LV allows 28% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Fleury's offense vs Leonard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 2% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 13 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 3% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 1164 games; his own games: +67% in 16 without vs 18 with). Effect −3%. Offensive line: Charles Cross (Out, ankle), Christian Haynes (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Charles Cross: his team −26% in 5 games without him vs 24 with; Christian Haynes: his team −0% in 20 games without him vs 9 with); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect −8%. LV secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −2% in 1959 games). Effect +1%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 25 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 14.9 |
| Matchup | −0.0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.3 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −2.6 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.6 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 12.6 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 6% less than average, so his raw 14.1 counts as 14.9. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: LV allows 0% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Fleury's offense vs Leonard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 2% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 13 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 28% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Charles Cross (Out, ankle), Christian Haynes (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Charles Cross: his team +24% in 5 games without him vs 24 with; Christian Haynes: his team −4% in 20 games without him vs 9 with); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect +4%. LV defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −0%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 26 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 3%, fair odds +3300 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.00 |
| Matchup | 0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | 0 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.00 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. His schedule was about average. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: LV allows 53% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Fleury's offense vs Leonard's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. No games in that window among his last 34, so no adjustment.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Charles Cross (Out, ankle), Christian Haynes (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Charles Cross: his team −9% in 5 games without him vs 24 with; Christian Haynes: his team −4% in 20 games without him vs 9 with); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect −5%. LV defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 8 | CHI | 188 | 20 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 7 | KC | 257 | 17 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 6 | DEN | 278 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | SF | 195 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 4 | LAC | 168 | 6 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 3 | WAS | 379 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 2026 wk 1 | NE | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 22 (playoffs) | NE | 202 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.