RB · BAL
Justice Hill
Next: Week 10, LAC at BAL, .
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 29.6 |
| Matchup | +2.3 |
| Weather | −0.2 |
| Coach / team | +1.6 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +5.3 |
| Injuries / lineup | +2.4 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 41.0 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 6% less than average, so his raw 27.7 counts as 29.6. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: LAC allows 8% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 45°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Clear. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −3% in 480 games; his own games: +39% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect −0%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Doyle's offense vs O'Leary's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 71 games since 2018, 8% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 34% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Tyler Huntley is not expected to play (on injured reserve) (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: +25% in 9 without vs 25 with; already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect +6%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. LAC defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 13.0 |
| Matchup | −2.4 |
| Weather | +0.1 |
| Coach / team | −0.1 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.9 |
| Injuries / lineup | −1.6 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 9.8 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% more than average, so his raw 13.4 counts as 13.0. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: LAC allows 19% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 45°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Clear. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −33% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Doyle's offense vs O'Leary's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 71 games since 2018, 2% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 14% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Tyler Huntley is not expected to play (on injured reserve) (quarterback gap: Tyler Huntley 6.7 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −46% in 9 without vs 25 with; already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect −16%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −47% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect +0%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. LAC secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 31%, fair odds +225 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.29 |
| Matchup | +0.04 |
| Weather | +0.01 |
| Coach / team | +0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.06 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.08 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.32 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 23% less than average, so his raw 0.22 counts as 0.29. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: LAC allows 15% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 45°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Clear. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Doyle's offense vs O'Leary's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 71 games since 2018, 5% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 97% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Tyler Huntley is not expected to play (on injured reserve) (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: −60% in 9 without vs 25 with; already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect −25%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. LAC defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | JAX | 0 | 85 | 7 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 8 | BUF | 0 | 15 | 20 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | CIN | 0 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | CLE | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | ATL | 0 | 73 | 5 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | TEN | 0 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | DAL | 0 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | NO | 0 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.