QB · MIN
Kyler Murray
Not expected to play: Out, hamstring
Next: Week 10, MIN at GB, .
Passing yards
Moderate vs 42 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 187.3 |
| Matchup | −0.9 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −7.8 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −1.4 |
| Injuries / lineup | +12.3 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 189.5 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% more than average, so his raw 191.2 counts as 187.3. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: GB allows 0% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 2 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: O'Connell's offense vs Gannon's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 14% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 9 games in that window (of his last 28), he was 1% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: T.J. Hockenson (Out, wrist) not expected to play (league-wide −5% in 1164 games, scaled for his role: T.J. Hockenson takes 21% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: +50% in 23 without vs 5 with; already the case in 11 of his last 16 games). Effect +6%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. GB secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +1%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does); GB secondary: Xavier McKinney (Questionable, foot), Javon Bullard (Questionable, ankle).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Passing touchdowns
Moderate vs 40 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
At least one: 78%, fair odds -364 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 1.17 |
| Matchup | −0.03 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.13 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.07 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.04 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 1.37 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% more than average, so his raw 1.19 counts as 1.17. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: GB allows 3% less to the whole offense than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 2 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: O'Connell's offense vs Gannon's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 55% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 4% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 9 games in that window (of his last 28), he was 11% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: T.J. Hockenson (Out, wrist) not expected to play (league-wide −8% in 1164 games, scaled for his role: T.J. Hockenson takes 21% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: +34% in 23 without vs 5 with; already the case in 11 of his last 16 games). Effect +3%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide +1% in 1851 games). Effect −0%. GB secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −2% in 1959 games). Effect +1%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does); GB secondary: Xavier McKinney (Questionable, foot), Javon Bullard (Questionable, ankle).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Rushing yards
Consistent vs 25 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 31.3 |
| Matchup | −4.5 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −2.1 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +3.8 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.9 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 29.4 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% less than average, so his raw 30.3 counts as 31.3. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: GB allows 14% less to quarterbacks than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 2 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: O'Connell's offense vs Gannon's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 16% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 4% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 9 games in that window (of his last 28), he was 26% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. GB defensive front: Zaire Franklin (Doubtful, shin) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Zaire Franklin: his team −14% in 3 games without him vs 6 with, 6.0 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.4)); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect +1%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does); GB defensive front: Lukas Van Ness (Questionable, back).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 26 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 14%, fair odds +620 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.12 |
| Matchup | 0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.02 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.01 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.12 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 8% more than average, so his raw 0.13 counts as 0.12. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: GB allows 0% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 2 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: O'Connell's offense vs Gannon's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 62% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 9 games in that window (of his last 28), he was 53% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. GB defensive front: Zaire Franklin (Doubtful, shin) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Zaire Franklin: his team +0% in 3 games without him vs 6 with, 6.0 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 3.4)); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect +5%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does); GB defensive front: Lukas Van Ness (Questionable, back).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 8 | DET | 210 | 35 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 7 | IND | 150 | 39 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 5 | NO | 229 | 51 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 4 | MIA | 247 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | TB | 168 | 17 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 | GB | 18 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 5 | TEN | 220 | 25 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 4 | SEA | 200 | 41 | 0 | 2 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.