TE · MIN
T.J. Hockenson
Not expected to play: Out, wrist
Next: Week 10, MIN at GB, .
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 50 tight ends · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 32.6 |
| Matchup | −4.9 |
| Weather | +0.3 |
| Coach / team | −1.2 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −1.4 |
| Injuries / lineup | +1.0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 26.4 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4% more than average, so his raw 34.0 counts as 32.6. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: GB allows 15% less to tight ends than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 2 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −45% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: O'Connell's offense vs Gannon's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 14% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 17 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 7% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Kyler Murray is not expected to play (Out, hamstring) (quarterback gap: Kyler Murray 6.9 yards per attempt vs Carson Wentz 6.6, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +12% in 9 without vs 25 with; already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect +4%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −3% in 5 without vs 29 with). Effect −1%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. GB secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does); Jordan Addison is listed Questionable, thumb; GB secondary: Xavier McKinney (Questionable, foot), Javon Bullard (Questionable, ankle).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 45 tight ends · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 29%, fair odds +241 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.28 |
| Matchup | −0.09 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.02 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.03 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.04 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.28 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 13% more than average, so his raw 0.31 counts as 0.28. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: GB allows 33% less to tight ends than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 2 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: O'Connell's offense vs Gannon's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 62% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 17 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 21% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Kyler Murray is not expected to play (Out, hamstring) (quarterback gap: Kyler Murray 3.9 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs Carson Wentz 3.5, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +54% in 9 without vs 25 with; already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect +20%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: −32% in 5 without vs 29 with). Effect +1%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. GB secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: he himself is not expected to play (these numbers apply only if he does); Jordan Addison is listed Questionable, thumb; GB secondary: Xavier McKinney (Questionable, foot), Javon Bullard (Questionable, ankle).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | BUF | 0 | 0 | 33 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | DET | 0 | 0 | 58 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | IND | 0 | 0 | 35 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 5 | NO | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | MIA | 0 | 0 | 119 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | TB | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | CHI | 0 | 0 | 29 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | GB | 0 | 0 | 36 | 1 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.