RB · NYG
Devin Singletary
Next: Week 11, JAX at NYG, .
Rushing yards
Moderate vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 19.8 |
| Matchup | −3.0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.6 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.2 |
| Injuries / lineup | −6.8 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 10.8 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4% more than average, so his raw 20.6 counts as 19.8. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: JAX allows 15% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: No forecast for this game yet (forecasts reach about six days ahead and cover US stadiums). Counted as 0.
- Coach / team: Nagy's offense vs Campanile's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 70 games since 2018, 5% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 23 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 2% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: −17% in 16 without vs 18 with). Effect +4%. Lead running back: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide +101% in 1074 games; his own games: +117% in 22 without vs 12 with). Effect −43%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. JAX defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −2%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 14.1 |
| Matchup | +0.2 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.3 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.9 |
| Injuries / lineup | +2.1 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 15.2 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 5% less than average, so his raw 13.4 counts as 14.1. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: JAX allows 1% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: No forecast for this game yet (forecasts reach about six days ahead and cover US stadiums). Counted as 0.
- Coach / team: Nagy's offense vs Campanile's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 70 games since 2018, 3% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 23 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 9% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Jameis Winston 7.1 yards per attempt vs J.J. McCarthy 7.0, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −57% in 16 without vs 18 with). Effect +18%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −38% in 28 without vs 6 with). Effect +7%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. JAX secondary: Eric Murray (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Eric Murray: his team −22% in 8 games without him vs 18 with, allows 7.8 yards per target (unit starters: 6.7)); already the case in 7 of his last 16 games). Effect −10%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Moderate vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 12%, fair odds +723 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.36 |
| Matchup | −0.09 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | 0 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.16 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.11 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 6% more than average, so his raw 0.38 counts as 0.36. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: JAX allows 25% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: No forecast for this game yet (forecasts reach about six days ahead and cover US stadiums). Counted as 0.
- Coach / team: Nagy's offense vs Campanile's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 70 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 23 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 0% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: +132% in 16 without vs 18 with). Effect −25%. Lead running back: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide +108% in 1074 games; his own games: +146% in 22 without vs 12 with). Effect −48%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. JAX defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −2%. Watch: this week's injury report is not posted yet (teams publish it Wednesday to Friday).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 10 | WAS | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 9 | PHI | 0 | 31 | 8 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | HOU | 0 | 41 | 14 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 6 | NO | 0 | 14 | 19 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | LA | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | DAL | 0 | 16 | 22 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 18 | DAL | 0 | 26 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 17 | LV | 0 | 45 | 25 | 1 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.