RB · TEN
Tony Pollard
Next: Week 10, JAX at TEN, .
Rushing yards
Consistent vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 90.3 |
| Matchup | −13.7 |
| Weather | +0.4 |
| Coach / team | +4.3 |
| Rest / bye | +4.6 |
| Game time | +1.4 |
| Injuries / lineup | −2.7 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 84.5 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4% more than average, so his raw 93.6 counts as 90.3. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: JAX allows 15% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 52°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −3% in 480 games; his own games: −26% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Daboll's offense vs Campanile's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 55 games since 2018, 10% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 7% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Daboll's offenses: 16% above in 4 games. This player: 61% below his average in 1 game after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 28 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 2% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: −9% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +0%. Offensive line: Peter Skoronski (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Peter Skoronski: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −2%. JAX defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 12.1 |
| Matchup | +0.2 |
| Weather | −0.2 |
| Coach / team | +0.1 |
| Rest / bye | −1.3 |
| Game time | −0.6 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.2 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 10.5 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 14% less than average, so his raw 10.4 counts as 12.1. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: JAX allows 1% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 52°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: +127% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect −2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Daboll's offense vs Campanile's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 55 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 3% below their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Daboll's offenses: 17% below in 4 games. This player: 70% below his average in 1 game after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 28 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 6% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Cam Ward 6.1 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +1% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect −0%. Top targets: Carnell Tate (Out, shoulder) not expected to play (league-wide +16% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Carnell Tate takes 25% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: +53% in 27 without vs 7 with; already the case in 9 of his last 16 games). Effect +13%. Offensive line: Peter Skoronski (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Peter Skoronski: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −0%. JAX secondary: Eric Murray (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Eric Murray: his team −22% in 8 games without him vs 18 with, allows 7.8 yards per target (unit starters: 6.7)); already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect −10%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Moderate vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 54%, fair odds -116 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 1.43 |
| Matchup | −0.36 |
| Weather | +0.02 |
| Coach / team | +0.03 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.04 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.01 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 1.15 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 8% less than average, so his raw 1.32 counts as 1.43. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: JAX allows 25% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 52°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Daboll's offense vs Campanile's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 55 games since 2018, 5% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 1% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). Daboll's offenses: 8% above in 4 games. This player: 100% below his average in 1 game after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 28 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 5% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: −46% in 4 without vs 30 with). Effect +2%. Offensive line: Peter Skoronski (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Peter Skoronski: no games without him to compare, league number used); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. JAX defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −2%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 8 | CIN | 0 | 117 | 20 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 7 | CLE | 0 | 129 | 26 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 6 | IND | 0 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | HOU | 0 | 52 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | BAL | 0 | 48 | 2 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | NYG | 0 | 74 | 22 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | PHI | 0 | 64 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | NYJ | 0 | 35 | -1 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.