WR · PIT
DK Metcalf
Next: Week 10, PIT at CIN, .
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 49.8 |
| Matchup | −2.1 |
| Weather | +1.0 |
| Coach / team | +1.3 |
| Rest / bye | +1.3 |
| Game time | −0.2 |
| Injuries / lineup | +2.8 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 53.9 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 50.2 counts as 49.8. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: CIN allows 4% less to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: −18% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −8% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McCarthy's offense vs Golden's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 17% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 71 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 3% below their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). No bye history for McCarthy. This player: 71% above his average in 2 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 9 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 1% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Aaron Rodgers 6.6 yards per attempt vs Mason Rudolph 6.5, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −33% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Top targets: Roman Wilson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (league-wide +16% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Roman Wilson takes 15% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: +24% in 30 without vs 4 with; already the case in 12 of his last 16 games). Effect +4%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. CIN secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 15%, fair odds +547 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.11 |
| Matchup | +0.01 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.01 |
| Rest / bye | +0.01 |
| Game time | −0.02 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.01 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.13 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 11% more than average, so his raw 0.12 counts as 0.11. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: CIN allows 7% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +3%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: +53% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect −2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McCarthy's offense vs Golden's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 50% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 71 games since 2018, 5% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 1% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). No bye history for McCarthy. This player: 49% above his average in 2 games after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 9 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 35% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 2 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Aaron Rodgers 4.7 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs Mason Rudolph 3.7, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +23% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Top targets: Roman Wilson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (league-wide +10% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Roman Wilson takes 15% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: +36% in 30 without vs 4 with; already the case in 12 of his last 16 games). Effect +4%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. CIN secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 8 | CLE | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | NO | 0 | 0 | 56 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | TB | 0 | 0 | 93 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | IND | 0 | 11 | 12 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | CLE | 0 | 0 | 115 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | CIN | 0 | 0 | 31 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 | NE | 0 | 0 | 27 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | ATL | 0 | 0 | 40 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.