QB · IND
Daniel Jones
Next: Week 10, MIA at IND, .
Passing yards
Moderate vs 42 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 186.1 |
| Matchup | −4.1 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −2.6 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −11.3 |
| Injuries / lineup | +1.1 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 169.1 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 188.6 counts as 186.1. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: MIA allows 2% less to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Partly Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Steichen's offense vs Hafley's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 3% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 117 games since 2018, 1% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 20 games in that window (of his last 32), he was 9% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: Keenan Allen (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (league-wide −5% in 1164 games, scaled for his role: Keenan Allen takes 23% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: +11% in 26 without vs 6 with; already the case in 10 of his last 16 games). Effect +1%. Offensive line: Jalen Travis (Out, knee), Quenton Nelson (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jalen Travis: his team +15% in 5 games without him vs 21 with; Quenton Nelson: his team −27% in 2 games without him vs 24 with); already the case in 2 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. MIA secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Passing touchdowns
Moderate vs 40 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
At least one: 81%, fair odds -431 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.78 |
| Matchup | +0.14 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.03 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.07 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 1.01 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 5% less than average, so his raw 0.74 counts as 0.78. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: MIA allows 18% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Partly Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Steichen's offense vs Hafley's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 4% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 117 games since 2018, 1% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 20 games in that window (of his last 32), he was 5% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: Keenan Allen (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (league-wide −8% in 1164 games, scaled for his role: Keenan Allen takes 23% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: +21% in 26 without vs 6 with; already the case in 10 of his last 16 games). Effect +2%. Offensive line: Jalen Travis (Out, knee), Quenton Nelson (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jalen Travis: his team +23% in 5 games without him vs 21 with; Quenton Nelson: his team −17% in 2 games without him vs 24 with); already the case in 2 of his last 16 games). Effect +5%. MIA secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −2% in 1959 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 25 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 10.5 |
| Matchup | −3.2 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.5 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.1 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.8 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 8.7 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% more than average, so his raw 10.8 counts as 10.5. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: MIA allows 30% less to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Partly Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Steichen's offense vs Hafley's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 23% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 117 games since 2018, 3% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 20 games in that window (of his last 32), he was 2% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Jalen Travis (Out, knee), Quenton Nelson (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jalen Travis: his team +53% in 5 games without him vs 21 with; Quenton Nelson: his team −9% in 2 games without him vs 24 with); already the case in 2 of his last 16 games). Effect +10%. MIA defensive front: Zach Sieler (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Zach Sieler: no games without him to compare, league number used, 2.7 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.8)); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect +1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 26 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 14%, fair odds +625 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.10 |
| Matchup | +0.02 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | 0 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.01 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.11 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 9% less than average, so his raw 0.09 counts as 0.10. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: MIA allows 24% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Partly Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Steichen's offense vs Hafley's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 41% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 117 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 20 games in that window (of his last 32), he was 2% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: Jalen Travis (Out, knee), Quenton Nelson (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jalen Travis: his team +7% in 5 games without him vs 21 with; Quenton Nelson: his team −45% in 2 games without him vs 24 with); already the case in 2 of his last 16 games). Effect −6%. MIA defensive front: Zach Sieler (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Zach Sieler: no games without him to compare, league number used, 2.7 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.8)); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | DAL | 180 | 11 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 8 | JAX | 144 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | MIN | 108 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | TEN | 269 | 30 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 5 | PIT | 267 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | WAS | 143 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | HOU | 235 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 | KC | 210 | 10 | 0 | 1 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.