WR · SF
Deebo Samuel Sr.
Next: Week 10, SF at DAL, .
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 40.9 |
| Matchup | +2.1 |
| Weather | +0.3 |
| Coach / team | +0.3 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −2.4 |
| Injuries / lineup | +1.8 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 43.0 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% less than average, so his raw 39.6 counts as 40.9. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: DAL allows 5% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 50°F, wind 10 mph, 18% chance of rain or snow, Slight Chance Rain Showers. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: +26% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect −0%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: −31% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Shanahan's offense vs Parker's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 1% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 15 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 8% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Brock Purdy 8.0 yards per attempt vs a typical backup 6.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +8% in 9 without vs 25 with). Effect +1%. Top targets: Mike Evans (Out, achilles) not expected to play (league-wide +16% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Mike Evans takes 23% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: −4% in 29 without vs 5 with; already the case in 11 of his last 16 games). Effect +2%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. DAL secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: offensive line: Trent Williams (Questionable, shoulder); DAL secondary: DaRon Bland (Questionable, ankle).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 46%, fair odds +117 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.39 |
| Matchup | +0.06 |
| Weather | +0.02 |
| Coach / team | −0.01 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.01 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.01 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.48 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% less than average, so his raw 0.39 counts as 0.39. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: DAL allows 15% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 50°F, wind 10 mph, 18% chance of rain or snow, Slight Chance Rain Showers. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +3%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Shanahan's offense vs Parker's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 2% below expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 15 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 2% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Brock Purdy 5.6 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs a typical backup 3.3, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −2% in 9 without vs 25 with). Effect +6%. Top targets: Mike Evans (Out, achilles) not expected to play (league-wide +10% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Mike Evans takes 23% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: −49% in 29 without vs 5 with; already the case in 11 of his last 16 games). Effect −6%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. DAL secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −0%. Watch: offensive line: Trent Williams (Questionable, shoulder); DAL secondary: DaRon Bland (Questionable, ankle).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 5 | SEA | 0 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | DEN | 0 | 44 | 26 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | ARI | 0 | 14 | 80 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 | MIA | 0 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | LA | 0 | 12 | 48 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 18 | PHI | 0 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 | DAL | 0 | 25 | 68 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 | PHI | 0 | 0 | 35 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.