TE · NO
Juwan Johnson
Next: Week 10, CAR at NO, .
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 50 tight ends · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 27.3 |
| Matchup | −2.1 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.1 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +1.0 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.2 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 26.3 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 27.6 counts as 27.3. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: CAR allows 8% less to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Moore's offense vs Wash's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Air Coryell offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 77 games since 2018, 0% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 24 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 5% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: +17% in 17 without vs 17 with). Effect −3%. Offensive line: Taliese Fuaga (Out, knee), Erik McCoy (Out, biceps) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Taliese Fuaga: his team −9% in 4 games without him vs 21 with; Erik McCoy: his team +11% in 10 games without him vs 15 with); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect +2%. CAR secondary: Akayleb Evans (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Akayleb Evans: his team +4% in 15 games without him vs 11 with, allows 8.8 yards per target (unit starters: 8.5)); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect +1%. Watch: CAR secondary: Will Lee (Questionable, hamstring).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 45 tight ends · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 22%, fair odds +352 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.24 |
| Matchup | +0.04 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | 0 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.02 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.25 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 30% more than average, so his raw 0.31 counts as 0.24. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: CAR allows 15% more to tight ends than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Moore's offense vs Wash's defense: no meetings since 2018. Scheme: Air Coryell offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 77 games since 2018, 2% above expectation.
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 24 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 1% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +10% in 4154 games; his own games: −37% in 17 without vs 17 with). Effect +5%. Offensive line: Taliese Fuaga (Out, knee), Erik McCoy (Out, biceps) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Taliese Fuaga: his team −27% in 4 games without him vs 21 with; Erik McCoy: his team −20% in 10 games without him vs 15 with); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect −18%. CAR secondary: Akayleb Evans (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Akayleb Evans: his team +14% in 15 games without him vs 11 with, allows 8.8 yards per target (unit starters: 8.5)); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect +6%. Watch: CAR secondary: Will Lee (Questionable, hamstring).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | CLE | 0 | 0 | 34 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | PIT | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | NYG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | MIN | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | ATL | 0 | 0 | 59 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | LV | 0 | 0 | 53 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 2 | BAL | 0 | 0 | 66 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | DET | 0 | 0 | 54 | 1 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.