RB · PIT
Rico Dowdle
Next: Week 10, PIT at CIN, .
Rushing yards
Moderate vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 38.1 |
| Matchup | −1.1 |
| Weather | −1.6 |
| Coach / team | +1.7 |
| Rest / bye | +1.4 |
| Game time | −0.5 |
| Injuries / lineup | −14.5 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 23.5 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 4% more than average, so his raw 39.5 counts as 38.1. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: CIN allows 3% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −3% in 480 games; his own games: +56% in 5 without vs 29 with). Effect −4%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McCarthy's offense vs Golden's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 4% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 71 games since 2018, 8% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 7% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). No bye history for McCarthy. This player: 24% below his average in 1 game after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 4 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 4% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: −23% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect +0%. Lead running back: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide +101% in 1074 games; his own games: +91% in 29 without vs 5 with). Effect −40%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. CIN defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Moderate vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 15.7 |
| Matchup | +0.1 |
| Weather | −0.2 |
| Coach / team | +0.4 |
| Rest / bye | −1.0 |
| Game time | +1.4 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 16.4 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 5% more than average, so his raw 16.5 counts as 15.7. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: CIN allows 1% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: +26% in 5 without vs 29 with). Effect −2%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McCarthy's offense vs Golden's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 17% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 71 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 3% below their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). No bye history for McCarthy. This player: 58% below his average in 1 game after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 4 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 26% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Aaron Rodgers 6.6 yards per attempt vs Mason Rudolph 6.5, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −1% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect +0%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 12 of his last 16 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games; his own games: −22% in 30 without vs 4 with). Effect −1%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. CIN secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 8 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 15%, fair odds +563 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.27 |
| Matchup | −0.03 |
| Weather | −0.03 |
| Coach / team | +0.03 |
| Rest / bye | +0.01 |
| Game time | −0.02 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.09 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.14 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 8% less than average, so his raw 0.25 counts as 0.27. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: CIN allows 9% less to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 42°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Cloudy. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: +150% in 5 without vs 29 with). Effect −11%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McCarthy's offense vs Golden's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 50% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 71 games since 2018, 5% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Coming off a bye. League-wide, offenses are 1% above their average after a bye (270 games since 2018). No bye history for McCarthy. This player: 220% above his average in 1 game after a bye. All weighted for sample size.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 4 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 100% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: −11% in 3 without vs 31 with). Effect +1%. Lead running back: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide +108% in 1074 games; his own games: +63% in 29 without vs 5 with). Effect −38%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. CIN defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 3 of his last 16 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −1%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 8 | CLE | 0 | 56 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | NO | 0 | 41 | 45 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | TB | 0 | 40 | 9 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | NE | 0 | 22 | 22 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | ATL | 0 | 15 | 6 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 19 (playoffs) | LA | 0 | 9 | 6 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 | TB | 0 | 10 | 20 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 | SEA | 0 | 59 | 4 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.