RB · IND
Jonathan Taylor
Next: Week 10, MIA at IND, .
Rushing yards
Consistent vs 62 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 58.7 |
| Matchup | +3.8 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +4.2 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −6.0 |
| Injuries / lineup | +8.5 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 69.1 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. His schedule was about average. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: MIA allows 6% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Partly Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Steichen's offense vs Hafley's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 23% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 117 games since 2018, 3% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 24 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 13% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: −3% in 8 without vs 26 with). Effect +0%. Offensive line: Jalen Travis (Out, knee), Quenton Nelson (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jalen Travis: his team +53% in 5 games without him vs 21 with; Quenton Nelson: his team −9% in 2 games without him vs 24 with); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect +11%. MIA defensive front: Zach Sieler (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Zach Sieler: no games without him to compare, league number used, 2.7 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.8)); already the case in 1 of his last 16 games). Effect +2%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 66 running backs · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 20.6 |
| Matchup | +1.7 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.3 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −3.1 |
| Injuries / lineup | +1.9 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 20.8 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% more than average, so his raw 21.1 counts as 20.6. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: MIA allows 8% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Partly Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Steichen's offense vs Hafley's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 3% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 117 games since 2018, 1% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 24 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 19% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (quarterback gap: Daniel Jones 6.8 yards per attempt vs Anthony Richardson 6.6, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −49% in 8 without vs 26 with). Effect +10%. Top targets: Keenan Allen (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (league-wide +16% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Keenan Allen takes 23% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: −24% in 28 without vs 6 with; already the case in 10 of his last 16 games). Effect −1%. Offensive line: Jalen Travis (Out, knee), Quenton Nelson (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jalen Travis: his team +15% in 5 games without him vs 21 with; Quenton Nelson: his team −27% in 2 games without him vs 24 with); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −0%. MIA secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 60 running backs · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 51%, fair odds -104 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.77 |
| Matchup | +0.11 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.07 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.16 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.05 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.71 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 11% less than average, so his raw 0.69 counts as 0.77. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: MIA allows 15% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 51°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Partly Sunny. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: Steichen's offense vs Hafley's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 41% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Reid tree) offenses vs Cover 3 single-high (Seattle tree) defenses, 117 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 24 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 25% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 16 games (league-wide −17% in 763 games; his own games: −29% in 8 without vs 26 with). Effect +8%. Offensive line: Jalen Travis (Out, knee), Quenton Nelson (no longer on the roster) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jalen Travis: his team +7% in 5 games without him vs 21 with; Quenton Nelson: his team −45% in 2 games without him vs 24 with); already the case in 6 of his last 16 games). Effect −4%. MIA defensive front: Zach Sieler (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Zach Sieler: no games without him to compare, league number used, 2.7 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.8)); already the case in 1 of his last 16 games). Effect +2%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | DAL | 0 | 46 | 18 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | JAX | 0 | 23 | 24 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | MIN | 0 | 95 | 15 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 6 | TEN | 0 | 94 | 57 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 5 | PIT | 0 | 45 | 37 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 4 | WAS | 0 | 95 | 2 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 3 | HOU | 0 | 68 | 4 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | KC | 0 | 92 | 40 | 2 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.