TE · LA
Colby Parkinson
Next: Week 10, LA at ARI, .
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 50 tight ends · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 25.7 |
| Matchup | −1.1 |
| Weather | +0.0 |
| Coach / team | −1.7 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +3.8 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.6 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 26.1 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 3% more than average, so his raw 26.5 counts as 25.7. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: ARI allows 4% less to tight ends than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 76°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: +13% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +0%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 144 games; his own games: +32% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect −0%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McVay's offense vs Rallis's defense: 7 meetings since 2018, 11% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 17 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 23% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: Puka Nacua (on injured reserve), Davante Adams (on injured reserve) not expected to play (league-wide +16% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Puka Nacua takes 35% of the team's targets, Davante Adams takes 22% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: −28% in 18 without vs 16 with; already the case in 7 of his last 16 games). Effect −7%. Offensive line: Steve Avila (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Steve Avila: his team +16% in 4 games without him vs 25 with); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect +5%. ARI secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: ARI secondary: Max Melton (Questionable, knee), Andrew Wingard (Questionable, groin).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Moderate vs 45 tight ends · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 24%, fair odds +323 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.21 |
| Matchup | +0.10 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.03 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.06 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.08 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.27 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 28% more than average, so his raw 0.27 counts as 0.21. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: ARI allows 48% more to tight ends than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 76°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 2 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: +73% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect −1%. Cold (32°F or colder): milder this week, after freezing weather in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 144 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McVay's offense vs Rallis's defense: 7 meetings since 2018, 14% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the late window. In his 17 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 66% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: Puka Nacua (on injured reserve), Davante Adams (on injured reserve) not expected to play (league-wide +10% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: Puka Nacua takes 35% of the team's targets, Davante Adams takes 22% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: −53% in 18 without vs 16 with; already the case in 7 of his last 16 games). Effect −22%. Offensive line: Steve Avila (Out, hamstring) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Steve Avila: his team −14% in 4 games without him vs 25 with); already the case in 4 of his last 16 games). Effect −4%. ARI secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −1%. Watch: ARI secondary: Max Melton (Questionable, knee), Andrew Wingard (Questionable, groin).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | WAS | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 7 | LV | 0 | 0 | 48 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | ARI | 0 | 0 | 31 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 5 | BUF | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | DEN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | NYG | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | SF | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 21 (playoffs) | SEA | 0 | 0 | 62 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.