RB · CAR
AJ Dillon
Next: Week 10, CAR at NO, .
Rushing yards
Boom or bust vs 62 running backs · last 10 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 9.7 |
| Matchup | +1.2 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.9 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +1.3 |
| Injuries / lineup | −2.7 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 8.6 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 10 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 6% less than average, so his raw 9.1 counts as 9.7. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: NO allows 12% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Canales's offense vs Staley's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 17% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 4% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 5 games in that window (of his last 10), he was 37% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 10 games (league-wide +3% in 763 games; his own games: −70% in 1 without vs 9 with). Effect +1%. Lead running back: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 10 games (league-wide +101% in 1074 games; his own games: −1% in 6 without vs 4 with). Effect −27%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 10 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. NO defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 10 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Receiving yards
Boom or bust vs 66 running backs · last 10 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
Bet a
Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 2.4 |
| Matchup | +0.2 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | −0.1 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.3 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.2 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 1.9 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 10 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% more than average, so his raw 2.4 counts as 2.4. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: NO allows 9% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Canales's offense vs Staley's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 15% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 5 games in that window (of his last 10), he was 123% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 10 games (quarterback gap: Bryce Young 6.6 yards per attempt vs Kenny Pickett 6.1, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +24% in 1 without vs 9 with). Effect +0%. Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 7 of his last 10 games (league-wide +16% in 4154 games). Effect −10%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 10 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. NO secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 4 of his last 10 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Consistent vs 60 running backs · last 10 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 5%, fair odds +2100 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.00 |
| Matchup | 0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | 0 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.00 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 10 games. His schedule was about average. Too few games to judge streakiness, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: NO allows 39% more to running backs than the league average, over 8 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Indoor game: no weather effect.
- Coach / team: Canales's offense vs Staley's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 11% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. No games in that window among his last 10, so no adjustment.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 10 games (league-wide −17% in 763 games). Effect +2%. Lead running back: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 10 games (league-wide +108% in 1074 games). Effect −39%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 5 of his last 10 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. NO defensive front: back to full strength, after being short in 1 of his last 10 games (league-wide +4% in 1400 games). Effect −0%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 4 | DET | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 3 | CLE | 0 | 16 | -2 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | ATL | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | CHI | 0 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 | WAS | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 6 | NYG | 0 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 5 | DEN | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 4 | TB | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.