WR · MIN
Justin Jefferson
Next: Week 10, MIN at GB, .
Receiving yards
Consistent vs 113 wide receivers · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 51.5 |
| Matchup | +1.9 |
| Weather | +0.6 |
| Coach / team | −2.2 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −1.8 |
| Injuries / lineup | +8.0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 58.0 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% more than average, so his raw 52.6 counts as 51.5. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: GB allows 4% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 2 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −6% in 480 games; his own games: +78% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: O'Connell's offense vs Gannon's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 14% below what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 18 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 5% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Kyler Murray is not expected to play (Out, hamstring) (quarterback gap: Kyler Murray 6.9 yards per attempt vs Carson Wentz 6.6, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: +17% in 10 without vs 24 with; already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect +6%. Top targets: T.J. Hockenson (Out, wrist) not expected to play (league-wide +16% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: T.J. Hockenson takes 21% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: +5% in 6 without vs 28 with; already the case in 3 of his last 16 games). Effect +8%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. GB secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect +0%. Watch: Jordan Addison is listed Questionable, thumb; GB secondary: Xavier McKinney (Questionable, foot), Javon Bullard (Questionable, ankle).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 92 wide receivers · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 27%, fair odds +267 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.37 |
| Matchup | +0.03 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +0.05 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | −0.04 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.09 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.31 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 2% less than average, so his raw 0.36 counts as 0.37. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: GB allows 7% more to wide receivers than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 46°F, wind 2 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Sunny. Wind (13 mph or more): calmer this week, after wind in 1 of his last 16 games (league-wide −10% in 480 games; his own games: −70% in 2 without vs 32 with). Effect +1%. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: O'Connell's offense vs Gannon's defense: 2 meetings since 2018, 62% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Two-high shell (Fangio tree) defenses, 254 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in the early window. In his 18 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 16% below his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Quarterback: Kyler Murray is not expected to play (Out, hamstring) (quarterback gap: Kyler Murray 3.9 touchdown passes per 100 attempts vs Carson Wentz 3.5, last three seasons, weighted for sample size; his own games: −46% in 10 without vs 24 with; already the case in 5 of his last 16 games). Effect −26%. Top targets: T.J. Hockenson (Out, wrist) not expected to play (league-wide +10% in 4154 games, scaled for his role: T.J. Hockenson takes 21% of the team's targets (typical: 22%); his own games: −3% in 6 without vs 28 with; already the case in 3 of his last 16 games). Effect +3%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 9 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. GB secondary: back to full strength, after being short in 6 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1959 games). Effect −0%. Watch: Jordan Addison is listed Questionable, thumb; GB secondary: Xavier McKinney (Questionable, foot), Javon Bullard (Questionable, ankle).
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | BUF | 0 | 0 | 58 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 8 | DET | 0 | 0 | 33 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 7 | IND | 0 | 0 | 44 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | NO | 0 | -11 | 79 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | TB | 0 | 0 | 32 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 | CHI | 0 | 0 | 55 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 | GB | 0 | 0 | 92 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 18 | GB | 0 | 3 | 101 | 0 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.