QB · LAC
Justin Herbert
Next: Week 10, LAC at BAL, .
Passing yards
Consistent vs 42 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
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A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 194.7 |
| Matchup | +4.1 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +11.9 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +4.6 |
| Injuries / lineup | +24.9 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 240.1 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 1% less than average, so his raw 192.9 counts as 194.7. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: BAL allows 2% more to the whole offense than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 45°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Clear. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McDaniel's offense vs Minter's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 26% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% above expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 4% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide −5% in 1164 games; his own games: −12% in 24 without vs 10 with). Effect +7%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +1%. BAL secondary: Jaylinn Hawkins (Out, knee) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylinn Hawkins: his team +22% in 3 games without him vs 6 with, allows 8.9 yards per target (unit starters: 8.2)); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect +4%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Passing touchdowns
Consistent vs 40 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
At least one: 71%, fair odds -241 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.64 |
| Matchup | −0.04 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +0.09 |
| Injuries / lineup | +0.13 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.81 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. His schedule was about average. Streaky: his recent games have predicted his next game better than his longer average, so recent games count more.
- Matchup: BAL allows 7% less to the whole offense than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 45°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Clear. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McDaniel's offense vs Minter's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 11% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 28% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Top targets: back to full strength, after being short in 11 of his last 16 games (league-wide −8% in 1164 games; his own games: −17% in 24 without vs 10 with). Effect +10%. Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide +1% in 1851 games). Effect +0%. BAL secondary: Jaylinn Hawkins (Out, knee) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Jaylinn Hawkins: his team +180% in 3 games without him vs 6 with, allows 8.9 yards per target (unit starters: 8.2)); already the case in 8 of his last 16 games). Effect +10%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Rushing yards
Moderate vs 25 quarterbacks · last 16 games, adjusted for schedule and this week · number on each bar = games
Calculator: payouts for one or two bets
A middle: Over a lower line and Under a higher line, both win in between. Set a bet to None to price a single bet. Odds are American (for example -110 or +150).
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Bet b
| Factor | yds |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 26.1 |
| Matchup | +0.8 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | +1.0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | +4.5 |
| Injuries / lineup | −0.9 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 31.5 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 5% more than average, so his raw 27.5 counts as 26.1. Steady: his longer average has predicted his next game better than his last few games, so all 16 count nearly equally.
- Matchup: BAL allows 3% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 45°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Clear. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McDaniel's offense vs Minter's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 26% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 2% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 46% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −4% in 1851 games). Effect +3%. BAL defensive front: Tavius Robinson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Tavius Robinson: his team −14% in 10 games without him vs 16 with, 2.6 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.0)); already the case in 1 of his last 16 games). Effect −6%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Anytime touchdown
Boom or bust vs 26 quarterbacks · last 16 games · number on each bar = games
Anytime touchdown: 5%, fair odds +2052 (adjusted for this week)
| Factor | TD |
|---|---|
| Statistics | 0.02 |
| Matchup | 0 |
| Weather | 0 |
| Coach / team | 0 |
| Rest / bye | 0 |
| Game time | 0 |
| Injuries / lineup | 0 |
| News | 0 |
| Projection | 0.02 |
Why these numbers
- Statistics: Last 16 games. Schedule-adjusted: the defenses he faced allowed 60% more than average, so his raw 0.03 counts as 0.02. Recent form and longer average predict about equally, so standard weighting.
- Matchup: BAL allows 16% more to quarterbacks than the league average, over 9 games (weighted for sample size).
- Weather: Forecast at kickoff: 45°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain or snow, Mostly Clear. No wind of 13 mph or more and no freezing cold, now or in his recent games: no adjustment. Rain and snow are shown but not measured yet.
- Coach / team: McDaniel's offense vs Minter's defense: 1 meeting since 2018, 60% above what those teams usually produce and allow (weighted for sample size). Scheme: West Coast (Shanahan tree) offenses vs Multiple / disguise defenses, 238 games since 2018, 1% below expectation (fills the weight the direct meetings do not earn).
- Rest / bye: Not coming off a bye.
- Game time: This game is in primetime. In his 10 games in that window (of his last 34), he was 16% above his usual, schedule-adjusted. Weighted for sample size.
- Injuries / lineup: Offensive line: back to full strength, after being short in 10 of his last 16 games (league-wide −1% in 1851 games). Effect +2%. BAL defensive front: Tavius Robinson (on injured reserve) not expected to play (measured per player, weighted for sample size, snap share and how good he has been (Tavius Robinson: his team −24% in 10 games without him vs 16 with, 2.6 tackles a game net of misses (unit starters: 4.0)); already the case in 1 of his last 16 games). Effect −11%.
- News: Not connected yet (X news). Injury reports are counted under Injuries / lineup. Counted as 0.
Recent games
| Game | Opp | Pass | Rush | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 9 | HOU | 193 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 8 | LA | 257 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 6 | KC | 204 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 5 | DEN | 121 | 54 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 4 | SEA | 189 | 40 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 3 | BUF | 226 | 17 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 | LV | 192 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 | ARI | 209 | 29 | 0 | 1 |
Updated 2026-11-15. Bars are his real games. Yellow factors are not connected yet and count as zero.